In April delivery of Urals to France and Turkey has reduced to zero. Saudi Brent Arab Light thanks to a discount of 10.25 per barrel also pushed Urals in Russia, Poland, Greece, Italy and the Netherlands, where the largest in Europe oil storage. Total statistics corrected building supplies in China, which for the first 4 months of this year purchased a record volume of Urals – about 6.1 million tons. As a result, the export of oil from Russia even showed an increase of 2.2% compared to April of 2020.
But in may the situation is aggravated by the need to comply with the terms of the deal, OPEC+. According to preliminary data, during the 20 days of this month, total exports of Russian oil declined by 25%.
Since June, the discount on Arab Light will decrease to 3.7 per barrel and are expected to gradually return share of Russian oil in Europe, but not quite at the same levels as before. Despite the similarity of the qualitative characteristics of the Urals and Arab Light, the transition from one variety to another is costly. Refineries (refinery), if you have already transferred technical process under Arab Light is unlikely to make the reverse transition. It is already known that a part of the Arab Light has moved some oil refineries in Finland, Poland, Turkey and Greece.
In favor of the Urals is the fact that many of the largest European refineries in April-may closed for repairs or interfered with the loading of their capacity. After returning to work they will resume purchases of Russian oil. In addition, refineries in China, having tasted this variety of oil, almost from her now will refuse, which will allow to increase exports of Urals in the East.