After the rapid build and achieve-month high, the dollar began to lose ground. In the course of trading on Thursday the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange has returned below the level of 71 rubles./$, having lost a relative to the local highs of more than 1.5 RUB Support to the Russian currency has a seasonal increase of sales of foreign currency from the Russian companies producing rubles for payment of dividends.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts of analitikov the coming days, the ruble may be formed in the range of 70.8–72.6 in RUB over dollarrevenue the sentiment remains mixed. The growth in the number of infected continues in large economies EAT as well as in the United States. Fears of a second wave of the pandemic persisted. Reducing of the volume of currency sales of the Central Bank over time will also be taken into account in quotations in the form of increased pressure on the national currency rate. Expect that in the coming days the ruble under the influence of different local and time factors can be formed in the range of 70.8–72,6 rubles per dollar.The deterioration in the current account balance limits the potential for strengthening rulerule earlier in the week came under appreciable pressure, however, acts out the part of the losses and is now worth about a 71.1 RUB/$. One of the main causes of the negative dynamics of the ruble — published a plan for the sale of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance on the market, from Wednesday the volume of transactions will decrease to 5.7 billion rubles/day with a 10.2 bln/day in June. The Finance Ministry selling foreign currency, already not compensate for the decline in oil prices, which are already above the cut-off price rule in the budget for the year 2020, and production cuts under OPEC deals+. Also on the dynamics of the ruble influenced the payment of dividends “Rosneft” and a gradual seasonal deterioration in the current account balance, which limits the potential appreciation of the ruble in the medium term. In the debt market, prices are under pressure due to the weakening of the ruble, while the stock market follows global trends. Therefore, in the absence of positive news in the global market in the next few days the ruble will stay in the range of 71-72 RUB/$.Today, the demand for EM assets padaet counterbalance the decreased interventions of the Central Bank reiterate its dividend payout by companies-exporters in this regard, the ruble looks stable on the background of the currencies-analogues. Today, the demand for EM assets is falling. Among the reasons of this phenomenon is increasing in recent time the frequency of outbreaks the coronavirus in several US States. Also a drop in demand for EM assets contributed and the comments of officials of the Federal reserve system of the United States of America. They said that at the moment take stimulating measures do not give the desired effect instanovlenia economy. The world price of oil is slightly reduced. This happens on the background of growth of oil reserves in the United States, according to figures released by the American petroleum Institute.
