The Russian ruble could not significantly strengthen the position against the leading world currencies. Beginning of the week was very successful for the Russian currency, from Monday to Wednesday the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange has fallen from 1.53 RUB, to 72,88 RUB/$. However, in the remaining days of the week the dollar recovered most of the losses and ended Friday’s session around the level of 73.78 rbl./$ that only 66 kopecks. below the end of the previous week. The pressure on the Russian currency has a weak seasonal trading operations and the growing sanctions pressure on Russia from the United States.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts of analitikov ruble keeps the number of factors davleniem that in the future the following weeks the tendency of the Russian currency to moderate the weakening continues, the ruble can be formed in the range of 73-74,5 rubles/$. We see that now the market sentiment once again be under pressure because of a new round of tension in relations between the US and China, this factor in the coming weeks may continue to gain strength. Also, the ruble keeps the number of pressure factors in the weakening in the second half of the trading transactions, the availability risk of intensifying the sanctions rhetoric in respect of Russia, as well as the risks of a correction in oil prices on the horizon the next two months. Dynamics of prices for oil and gas has led to some optimism the Ruble at the moment is not ready to continue the growth and remains in range trading mode at the level of 73-74,50. For the growth of the ruble, the necessary rise in commodity prices, which slowed down along with stopping the decline of the dollar index. However dynamics of prices for oil and gas has led to some optimism and can serve as a support for the ruble on the horizon weeks.Relatively high levels in the energy market will significantly restrain sales Rublev in the upcoming weeks expect to maintain a pair of dollar/ruble positions in the upper half of the range of 70-75 RUB General Market risks associated with the active spread of the coronavirus that can lead to the recovery of quarantine restrictions, and increasing tensions between the US and China, coupled with weak support from internal factors will not allow the ruble to continue its recovery demonstrated within the last week. Thus relatively high levels in the energy market will significantly restrain sales in the ruble, not giving rise to the release of the American currency above 75 rubles. In the circumstances, lateral movement in the upper half of the corridor 70-75 rubles. seems logical and reasonable.The markets are afraid of retaliation from China American technologymilitary expect agreement soon on a new package of fiscal measures �� otherwise the President of the United States expressed readiness to unilaterally pass the bill. In the focus of the remain relations with Beijing and Washington that affect exchange rates. The United States actively impose restrictions on Chinese technology companies ByteDance and Tencent. The administration trump believes that Chinese apps threaten national security. The markets are afraid of retaliation from China American technogiant. Coupled with the above, seasonal deterioration in the current account of the Russian Federation and the reduction of sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank in the budgetary rules, the ruble depreciates.The ruble should remain in the range of 73-75 rubles./$Sentiment in emerging markets remain moderately negative. The new restrictive measures against China minimize the ongoing recovery of the world economy. In addition, the introduction of a fourth stimulus package in the U.S. meets resistance on the part of Democrats that delays the process and does not add optimism to investors. Oil prices are close to local maxima, but the ruble is a neutral factor. The Ministry of Finance reduces the volume of currency sales in the budgetary rules and in the autumn may go to buying foreign currency. Among local factors, it is necessary to highlight the expected reduction in pressure from dividend period, and the resumption of demand at auctions of the Ministry of Finance, signaling the non-aggressive withdrawal of non-residents domestic debt market. In the current environment, the ruble should remain in the range of 73-75 rubles/$.
