Last week, the ruble finished the strongest in recent months, the depreciation against the major global currencies. According to the results of Friday’s trading the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange closed near $ 74,14 RUB/$, which is 2.4 RUB above the values of the closing of the previous week. The ruble is losing ground against the Euro in connection with the recovery of imports into the country, as well as large-scale conversion of dividends into foreign currency.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts analytically the world’s Central Bank will continue stimulating the economy the ruble as commodity currencies, will receive a fundamental support On the last week we observed a clear bias the balance in favor of buyers of foreign currencies against the ruble. In the upcoming week we expect stabilization in the area 74-75 in anticipation of the development of the situation with the epidemic. Global trading has changed dramatically in favor of commodity markets in the long term, the dollar index has broken important support level, there was a reversal pattern on the index commodity prices. If the world’s Central Bank will continue stimulating the economy, hopes inflation will increase, and the ruble as commodity currencies, will receive a fundamental support for the horizon of months/quarters.The current weakening of the ruble is hardly related to the second stage of a dividend periodoncia cycle of easing monetary policy of the Central Bank clearly requires the negative revaluation of prospects of the ruble. If before the wave of cuts in local interest rates and their high level relative to comparable developing economies have attracted foreign investors in ruble-denominated debt, but now the process is reversed. Strengthening the sanctions U.S. rhetoric in an election year and the weak Outlook for the economies of Russia, especially in the conservative plans for the Federal budget, lead to a smooth exit of non-residents from the Russian sites. This is not an aggressive correction, but it will take place the next couple of months. The current weakening of the ruble is hardly related to the second stage of a dividend period, too rapid a rate of weakening of the ruble with respect to the incoming dividend payments. However, this is not an avalanche-like devaluation, but rather an adjustment of market expectations on the key rate of the CBR.To further weakening of the ruble will lead seasonal factorywide that next week the ruble will be formed in the range of 73-75 rubles per dollar. The main risk factor for the ruble is the geopolitical plane. In our opinion, in the coming weeks as the sanctions rhetoric in Russia may be intensifying and the General geopolitical background of Russia could continue to deteriorate. To further weakening of the ruble will lead to seasonal factors and also the risks of lower demand and cautious and��speed of foreign capital from the Russian debt securities.Investors will continue to closely monitor developments in relations between the United States and Kitaigorodskii demand for the risk associated with the ongoing active spread of the coronavirus that causes concerns about future trends in the global economy, will continue to put pressure on the quotes of a wide range of assets, including the ruble. Plus, investors will continue to closely monitor developments in relations between the US and China that does not add to investor confidence and the markets calm. In such a situation are prerequisites for the weakening of the Russian currency. However, the stable situation in the energy market, where Brent crude continues to hold the position in the neighborhood of $43 per barrel, despite the upcoming increase in supply from the OPEC+ will constrain sales in the ruble. As a result, American currency during the week may try to test the upper limit of the range of 70-75 rubles. However, to consolidate above this level it may not have enough forces.Against the Russian ruble played the repayment period dividendenrendite the ruble continued to lose ground on the backdrop of withdrawal of investors from risk, breaking the levels of 74 rubles/$ and 87 RUB/€, respectively. The withdrawal of investors from risky assets due to the deteriorating situation with the spread of the coronavirus in the world and in USA in particular, as well as negative statistics on the us economy for the second quarter of 2020. Do not add optimism and the aggravation of contradictions between the US and China. Against the Russian ruble playing period payment of dividends that non-residents convert to their currency. A further weakening of the Russian ruble is still possible, however, as soon as the financial market sentiment will change and come to such factors support the ruble as the payment of taxes, he will be able to quickly restore the lost positions.
