Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, told about prospects of the ruble in July-August:
Today the market is waiting for important macroeconomic data, – said the expert. – Major releases scheduled for Thursday – retail sales in the US, the ECB meeting, as well as the block key data on the economy of China.
Friday will start a summit of EU leaders to discuss the parameters of the Fund’s recovery of € 750 billion and the budget unit for the next year. As news and news from Europe will likely not will have a decisive influence on mood. Because, in the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel for settlement of a current dispute may require another summit.
the Key for markets now is getting started earnings season. Considering the failure of 80 percent of the companies represented in the leading stock index, the S&P 500, the forecasts for the last quarter, it is hardly possible to count on pleasant surprises.
the Growing tension in relations between the US and China who can now touch and the situation in the South China sea, as well as dysfunctional dynamics spread СOVID-19. All this casts a shadow on the prospects of preserving the current pace of economic recovery. And we can expect a weakening of risk appetite. In this case, it is not necessary to rely on the stability from oil prices and the lack of pressure in the national currency.
oil Prices held in a narrow range of 41.5- $ 43 per barrel for Brent. However, the risk to take the path of correction with the order of $ 40 and 37,50 per barrel. Tomorrow will be a meeting of the technical Committee of OPEC+, which will remind you that starting next month, the amount of the limits of oil production will be reduced from 9.7 million barrels a day to 7.7 million. There are also risks reducing demand for fuel in a report from the US Department of energy at 17-30 because of the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in a number of States and the partial return limitations.
there is No support bracing and internal factors. Yesterday’s speech of the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina in the Federation Council, where she made the lowering of the key rate by 25 b. p. at the meeting of 24 July did not provoke a significant increase of interest of non-residents in ruble assets. Optimists in the ruble remains to rely only on the imminent beginning of the tax period. However, the decrease in sales of the Central Bank of foreign currency in the framework of the execution of the budget rules, as well as the deterioration of the balance of payments create the preconditions for the weakening of the national currency.
Together with the likely deterioration in sentiment on the external markets, the dollar and the Euro in July-August have a good chance to beat the highs of last week��and 72.3 per ruble and ruble in comparison with 81.65. And this is not limited.