When in the second half of January information about coronavirus infection just starting to walk through the world, first loss in economic circles saw the local: how the tourism industry will miss due to the cessation of trips to China from China, how much will grow in value vegetables and fruits in the far East, arriving there from China.
with the expansion of the epidemic has globalized, and threats. Almost immediately we had the oil price: because China is almost the main buyer in the world. Metal markets, gadgets, clothes — many have begun to count the losses due to salasanasi trade industrial chains to China.
And when the virus broke beyond the great wall, happened market panic that led to a massive collapse in global stock markets. Pic it just came at the end of last week. The Dow has fallen 10% from its peak pace he fell in the midst of the 2008 crisis. Europe’s leading index fell for the week by 12%. Bloomberg has estimated that only one exchange week, major world rich men have lost their share of $400 billion, oil Prices went into a deep dive. Back in the 20’s of January, a barrel of Brent crude cost under $65, now — less than $50. And $10 was lost in one only last week.
Well, what about Russia? We have all as humans, and even worse. The scenario of the economic crisis in the Russian way, we are in the last quarter century learned by heart: first, collapsing world markets, then oil, followed by the ruble. Now all the components of this scenario are obvious. The dollar in mid-January cost less than 60 rubles. Now — under 67, then cost € 68, now almost 74 rubles.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov urged not to panic and says that nothing extraordinary has not happened. They say that oil has fallen slightly, the ruble was slightly correct. According to the Minister, earlier in the crisis was the main threat from unsustainable budget, now, thanks to budget rule (it are laid out with a stock, based on the price of oil at $42 per barrel), he did not threaten. However, if a barrel fell by $15 per month, which will prevent it to fall another $8-10 and it will be below the cut-off price the budget rule? Therefore, the entire fiscal structure along with numerous social obligations will be again under threat. The Minister of Finance an answer to this question: according to him, even if oil will cost $30 a barrel within four years, the budget will stand.
Budget-you may survive, thanks to our experience in past years reserves, but we know and remember and in 2008, and to 2014-mu — what is the life of an ordinary man in crisis: wages and incomes are reduced, standard of living is falling, jobs are increasingly in question, inflation begins to grow… the Russians just walked away from a crisis strikes 2014-2015, and now, it looks like it’s time to prepare for the new belt-tightening.
it is Symptomatic that the beginning of the story with coronavirus is almost coincided with the appointment of a new Russian government. From the Cabinet mishustina was waiting unprecedented economic growth. However, the government will have, it seems, to engage in anti-crisis measures and attempts to save the economy and people’s incomes from falling. Interestingly, to save the economy and the population, the government mishustina will be using those serious reserves that has accumulated… the government of Medvedev. It just blamed the critics for what they do not know what hoarding reserves instead of investing in the real economy and infrastructure.
Maybe someone thinks that the author of these lines too exaggerated? Well, I think, a couple of days of falling markets, oil, ruble… Look, still formed and no crisis will happen. Of course, I want to believe the best. But cause for optimism. The epidemic of the coronavirus is spreading, the infected are detected in a growing number of countries, the economic damage from the epidemic is growing everywhere, panic, respectively, more covers financial markets and the end edges of these processes have not yet seen.
No, the financial crisis is not a hypothetical possibility of tomorrow, and the augmented reality of today. “Black Swan” with a crown on his head have already arrived. The question is, how long will be the destructive stroke of his wing, and a heavy blow of the beak.