The pandemic will lead to a sharp increase in global debt burden in absolute terms the total debt of governments, corporations, households and financial institutions in 2025 will grow by almost a third to $325 trillion, predicts the Washington Institute of International Finance (IIF). Three quarters of this increase will provide the U.S. and China — in both countries the rate of increase in borrowings on the background of the pandemic is already breaking records.Because COVID-19 global debt (of both States and households, corporations, financial institutions) in 2025 will increase to $325 trillion, with $255 trillion in 2019 — that is $70 trillion, expect the IIF. For comparison: last year the total load is increased by $11 trillion (up to 322% of GDP). 75% of the increase in debt by 2025 will fall on the United States and China.Already this year, global debt grew by $14 trillion a year ago during the same period the increase was almost twice smaller. The increase mainly occurred on the part of the national debt: in April it grew by $2.6 trillion (of which $1.5 trillion had on the United States), despite the fact that last year the average for the month, it grew by $1 trillion. In may, will probably set a new record, put it in the IIF. So, to the United States has adopted a fiscal program for the prevention of the crisis volume of $2.9 trillion would increase the national debt from 102 percent of GDP in 2019, up 120% this year and up to 140% of GDP by 2025.Not far behind, and China. The country has provided 40% of the increase in global debt since 2007 (from 172% to 300% of GDP in 2019). Sooner or later, the high debt burden will be for China an obstacle to further increase in borrowing indicated in the IIF. Notice there that in the first quarter of 2020 total debt in China rose to 317% of GDP — a record quarterly growth, two thirds of which is due to the fall of GDP, the third — the direct increase in debt.However, it should be noted that the debt of other countries to China grew faster than his own, with $875 billion in 2004 to $5.5 trillion in 2019 (this is equivalent to 6% of global GDP). In recent years, the growth was most pronounced in the segment of Bank loans and short-term trade financing. However, a large part of the debt (equivalent to 4.5% of global GDP) continued to account for portfolio investments, including the purchase of bonds in reserve currency.In the framework of the “Belt and road”, launched in 2013, Chinese investments abroad (in the form of investments and contracts for construction) amounted to no less than $730 billion — has led to a sharp increase in the debt burden of several countries with low income. According to the International monetary Fund, the highest risks of excess load — in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Laos, Maldives and Tajikistan. China is now the largest holder of debt of developing countries with low income (11% of their total debt). Among the countries that are members of the OECD initiative on suspension of payments for services debt, China accounts for roughly 25% of all external liabilities.Tatiana Edovina
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