the Reasons for this are indicated: the incident of falling incomes, restrained consumer behavior, the cautious mood of business and the restrictions imposed by external demand. In addition, the negative impact on the economic recovery may have another drop in oil prices below the cost inherent in the baseline scenario, the document which is quoted by TASS. This may result in the re-introduction of quarantine measures, or save until the end of 2020 existing limitations due to the further spread of the coronavirus in Russia and other countries.
the Bank of Russia expects the exhaustion in the coming months on the impact of the significant weakening of the ruble that occurred in the first quarter of this year.
“At the end of the first quarter of 2020 in a significant decrease in ruble exchange rate there has been a significant increase in demand and price growth for home appliances and electronics. In the coming months the impact of the weakening of the ruble that occurred in the first quarter, will be exhausted,” the report says.
Also, the Central Bank has lowered the forecast structural surplus liquidity in the banking sector in 2020 from 2.2-2.8 trillion to 1.4-2 trillion rubles. The main factor of outflow of funds, as growth in the volume of cash in circulation. The Bank of Russia believe that cash will gradually return to the Bank accounts, however, this process may occur more slowly than previously expected.