Pandemic and isolation unkind cost of domestic labor market, peritracheal and reformatting many of its components. Coronaries struck several painful blows at the working Russians turned to mass layoffs and lost revenues. However, he has opened up a window of unexpected features: this remote work, and often more comfortable in comparison with office working conditions, and the development of new advanced competencies. In General, the situation in employment, an unprecedented, but not catastrophic. In this opinion agreed the “round table” conducted by the editors of “MK” in an online format: associate Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexey Prong, member of the Board of Confederation of labour of Russia Pavel Kudyukin, Executive Director of Staffwell recruitment Agency mark Amelin, doctor of Economics of school of Economics Sergey Smirnov.
— a period of isolation, many experts repeating like a mantra: the labour market will never be the same. Do you agree with this statement or the situation as the lifting of restrictions will quickly return to January-February 2020?
Kudyukin: Some progress has been made. We see that increasing proportion of remote employment. The employer was convinced that udalenka has its advantages, like the ability to save on rent of premises. However, this mode creates fertile ground for abuse. We have a worker in the mass, without a murmur, and these are not too conscientious bosses. Very often violated requirements of the legislation about the reimbursement of home-based, with the Internet and electricity, consumption of which in these conditions increases. Plus the working day becomes absolutely irregular. People can call even at 6 a.m., though at 11 PM with some urgent issue at work. In addition, we are waiting for the gray growth of employment, especially in the service sector. Standard practice will be, for example, haircut at home at the acquaintance of the master.
Prong At the beginning of April predicted a global catastrophe. Today we see that USA V shape popping out of the crisis, and in Russia, no major disturbances, including the labour market, has not occurred. Although the number of registered unemployed has increased three-fold, exceeding 2 million people, but if you take the total mass of unemployed (by ILO methodology), it increased compared with last year increased by only 30%. It seems that all those alarmist statements that the labour market will change beyond recognition, was premature. Much more important for this sector are the geopolitical factors. Today trump is waging a protracted economic and trade war with China. This conflict is accompanied by the stimulation of GL��ball the IT industry and, as a consequence, the labour market, which becomes more resource intensive. With regard to the direct influence of coronaries, it highlighted some sort of philosophical meaning underlying values and needs: security, health, food distribution. The protagonists of the last months are people who, until recently, invisible: sellers in supermarkets, couriers, doctors, and many other representatives of the “earthly” occupations.
Q. Agree that the forecasts were apocalyptic. But the reality was different. Of course, some restructuring of employment occurs, and this is a natural process. During the isolation people are accustomed to remote services. Many took advantage of the grocery delivery service at home. I judge by the situation in Moscow. The need for couriers has grown dramatically, and their ranks began to join the capital’s residents with higher education. I guess the courier service will thrive. They allow us not to waste time on visiting stores, shopping malls and use it with greater efficiency. In General, I don’t expect any revolutionary changes in economic activities. April a surge in official unemployment was due primarily to the increase in benefits and simplifying the registration procedure. People responded to these measures of state support and got some money. But then such shocks will not be.
Amelin Transformation of labor relations is a long time. Take the legal industry. I remember in 2009 my colleagues and I discussed the prospects of the profession with its representatives. Somewhere far ahead is ripe with the opportunity of full digitalization of the industry. The current pandemic coronavirus has dramatically accelerated this process. A vivid example — history of St. Petersburg international legal forum (SPILF). He successfully passed in April in an online format, urgently moving to the virtual environment from the traditional offline. And all, including foreign participants, admitted that technically the conference was organized perfectly. I see the positive impact of coronaries? Before him, many professionals, including myself, there were no free seconds, we were constantly in motion. And this period is allowed to stop and look at yourself. Many have realized that was not doing what your soul is. In short, there was a rapid dissolution of the old structures and habits. Such as the opportunity to gather together in one workspace. Some of my colleagues are already accustomed to the remote and do not intend to return to the office.
How serious was the impact of the pandemic on the labour market and when can we expect recovery? What branches and spheres of activity suffered in the first place?
Kudyukin: due To the fall in real incomes SAG services. It is not clear how to operate fitness centers, beauty salons. The demand for them is reduced, and the part of the staff flows into the economy class segment, the status of self-employed. In addition, very much affected sectors connected with tourism and transport. Let me remind you that after the turbulent 1990s, years air travel was restored for five years, when in the “zero” began with a General economic growth. And not fully recovered. So here the prospects are vague. And again, in trade and catering has been a shift towards lower cost solutions. The luxury segment will continue in its present form, because it serves people of high-income, and they are no force majeure at all.
Barb: we Have a completely opaque situation of unemployment in the grey sector. A significant portion of employment in the service sector worked informally. For example, many hairdressers, deprived of a place in the workshop, they began to accept clients at home. At the labour exchange, they are not registered, but the income retained. With regard to the budget sector, and there in April-may of layoffs proved to be even less than at the end of last / beginning of this year. But in General the damage to the labor market associated with the pandemic, is quite small. In autumn the economy will claim all those people that spring has registered in the employment centers. Business rebuilt, there is a lot of new vacancies and, as a consequence, jobs. There are a number of professions for which demand has increased dramatically. In addition to the couriers it is, say, a delivery driver. To find good drivers who could be delivering in April-may it was impossible. These people are instantly snapped up.
Q. employment resuscitated not this year, and later — perhaps by the summer of 2021-th. Assume the situation with the tourist season, and he is in Russia is ruined. This means that hotels will be huge problems with occupancy, and restaurants — with the attendance. It is also unknown what the average unemployment figure, because in the period of self-isolation Rosstat couldn’t hold his traditional surveys face to face. The prospects for recovery of the labor market crucially depends on incomes, consumer demand and, of course, the sanitary-epidemiological situation. Many people are still scared and not in a rush to go on holiday. Accordingly, the same tourism will recover very slowly. But there are encouraging moments. A considerable part of Russians Willy-nilly spending money on entertainment, don’t go for shopping centers and has retained certain financial resources. This is a serious prerequisite for the recovery in consumer demand.
Amelin Some problems began before crisissa. So, in February, about 12% of employers have stopped recruiting employees. And at the end of March (coronavirus came to Russia around the middle of this month) the number of such companies has jumped to 40%. Many have stopped recruiting new employees, about half of the transferred staff udalenku. However, there are some sectors where the specialists was and will be in demand: marketing, retail, service, shopping, in particular refrigerators for food storage. Moreover, the pandemic has served as a breeding ground for professions such as a smart home designer, creative curator.
All concerned about the situation with salaries, white and gray income? That will change here given coronaries?
Kudyukin: I will Say briefly: as the economy will recover quite sluggish, wages are expected to stagnate, and partly the fall. However, with incomes it is the last five years.
Prong Our economy is largely tied to the budget. The workers of the defense industry, teachers, doctors problem and never will be. They won’t be found in major retail, which is not closed. The base rate stored in the private banks, with risk of loss of different kinds of bonuses and prizes. On average across industries, the average salary fell, but only slightly: before the crisis, it was (according to Rosstat) about 50 thousand rubles, and in April 45 thousand. As for the future prospects, it is clear that this year there will be some reduction or, in the optimistic scenario, zero growth. And next year, probably in real wages will add 2-3%. It is connected with realization of national projects so that the economy increases the share of sectors, designed to attract a highly skilled workforce.
Q. In General, real wages will rise, aided by low inflation of 3-3. 5%. But if you talk about sectors of the economy, it is very differentiated. Of course, the government will support state employees, but in the tourism sector, I foresee a rather stagnation. However, encouraged by recent decision on the 14-th project associated with the development of tourism in Russia. It is also good that provided funds for the construction of the road network in the regions. This will create additional jobs and conditions for wage growth. But at the end of the year should be considered rather the income of the population. We must look to what extent has the government fulfilled its commitments to compensate the failed in the period of the pandemic proceeds.
Amelin In many companies we see a trend to divert part of their salaries in KPI (key performance indicators), roughly speaking, linking it to specific performance of the employee. Man loses not a fixed salary, and awards, but very decent. Furthermore��on, people go on leave without pay. In General the situation in the business environment difficult. I spoke with several Directors-General of who to pay money to the personnel, professionals and middle managers, forgo their salaries.
— What are the key lessons for the domestic labour market can be drawn from the situation of a pandemic and isolation?
Kudyukin: Russian labour market was a large margin of safety. In many respects it is provided by volume shadow sector. The gray area allows you to absorb people who lose a formal job, and at the same time to hide the real amount of unemployment. A potential threat to persons in the situation of pandemic I see is that the government may decide to change labour laws, some making it more flexible. Will benefit employers in the conditions of crisis it will be easier to dismiss employees or transfer them to the leave of absence.
Barb: the First conclusion associated with the pandemic, the relative losses and risks. People need to understand the price they have to pay for certain government decisions related to quarantine restrictions. The pandemic has shown that we live in an information society and that information about the real or imagined threats to a considerable extent determines our work practices and income level. Is it worth it to go to the isolation or continue to drive to the office — the decision should be taken by the people themselves. You need to ask them if they are willing to get lower wages in exchange for lower risk. High autonomy of citizens in these matters — the key to stabilizing socio-economic situation in the country. And another lesson for the authorities: when you introduce protective measures for the population, locking him in quarantine, try to avoid demagoguery and populism.
Q. we are All inscribed in a continuous process. For example, one person is tightening one nut and the other another. And suddenly the pandemic. The first remains on production as held for earnings and willing to risk, and the second voluntarily shumoizolyatsiya house, wasting money, but saving lives. Someone to replace this employee? I don’t think it is possible diversified solutions, without standardized approaches will not do. The uniqueness of coronaries that he has forced the state to solve the hitherto unknown problem, not only economic. Another observation — the growth of social responsibility among the charges against the Russians. Responsibility to neighbors, colleagues, passers-by on the street, not to mention loved ones.
Amelin: Never before, neither I nor my colleagues have not been following so closely for news reports and statements of officials. And really not enough people�� at the governmental level, which would be professionally commented epidemiological nuances of events. There were a lot of interpretations, confusing and damaging to the economy and psyche. And another important point: that during a pandemic, often prompting calls to reduce the age of retirement. In my opinion, justified: on the labour market there is a clear discrimination against qualified employees in the age.