Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko accused the opposition of planning to overthrow the government in the country. He stated this at a meeting with soldiers of the 103rd Vitebsk guards separate airborne brigade. The place chosen for these statements, speaks for itself: everything is more than serious.
At a meeting with military Lukashenko reminded about the events of 2010 and the attempted storming of the government House. Meanwhile, the situation in Belarus ahead of presidential elections is heating up. On 14 July across the country, a wave of protests. Perhaps for the first time, Lukashenka’s opponents have demonstrated the ability to mobilize the masses on such a serious street protests.
Police acts tough, however, and the protests themselves can not be called absolutely peaceful. Is it possible that the situation in Belarus will go for the “Ukrainian scenario” and will result in open street confrontation between the authorities and the opposition? About this MK said political analyst Stanislav Smagin.
-How should I treat the words of Lukashenka about the preparation of the coup? He’s just looking for any pretext for repression against the opposition or his fears unfounded?
-the words Lukashenko we have been accustomed to treat as an element of the political bargaining, but the fact remains. His power is now under the most serious threat for the entire period of his reign. It is likely that attempts will be made to its violent overthrow. Not in the sense that there will be violence against his person personally, but in terms of attempts at unconstitutional change of government, taken outside the framework of electoral procedures.
on the other hand, Lukashenko clearly gives to understand that to give power is not going even if you lose the election. That is to say that he is preparing for the unconstitutional retention of power. So then faced the willingness Lukashenka’s unconstitutional to hold on to power and the willingness of the opposition to unconstitutional methods to overthrow him.
-That is, perhaps, the opposition will pour into the streets, and even before the election?
-Really, now street, civil society, activists, fueled by various foreign centers of power in Belarus has never active. People are just tired of Lukashenka, from its long stay in power. This fatigue is playing against him. Of course, his rating is not 3%, as claimed by detractors, but it at least allows him to claim victory in the first round. Unless, of course, the matter generally comes to the election. I think he now really is 20-25 percent.
Who is he can lose, because all his opponents before the election is simply not allowed?
-From the opposition candidates were only Svetlana Tikhanovski, which is now being “harnessed” and Victor Babariko, and Valery Tsepkalo, who agreed to give her their resources and power. Svetlana Tikhanovski – no, it is just a technical figure, replacing her husband, blogger Sergei Tikhanovski, who himself suddenly appeared only a year and a half ago. Something it is similar to Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Sharia.
So, for Tikhanovski on the principle of “protest vote” can vote not less people than we have in 2018 voted for the Communist Konovalov in the Republic of Khakassia, the Khabarovsk territory – for Sergey Furgala, or in the Vladimir region for opposition candidate Vladimir Sipyagin. It will become the crystallization point of all protest votes and really gain a lot.
Another issue, it is important not as vote, and how to count. Will consider, likely in favor of Lukashenko. But then the fun begins. Although interesting is happening now. I used to think that after the elections all the candidates to unite and begin to destabilize the situation. But the situation is already rocking. People take to the streets. Objectively, the power of Lukashenko is under threat, and under the threat of a possible unconstitutional dismantling.
Who may be interested in an unconstitutional shifting of Lukashenka?
Lukashenko makes it clear that behind all this is not only the West, but also Russia, the Kremlin. And it is possible that it is not so far from the truth. Russia, or rather its ruling class, which I do not identify fully with Russia, is interested in the dismantling of the regime of Lukashenko, who has already greatly irritated him.
“He broke all the pots” even on a personal level with the Russian leadership. The West, he’s annoying too, but for different reasons. Therefore, the West and Russia, for different reasons, interested in the overthrow of Lukashenko. Quite possibly, it will be some point to consolidate the pattern of last year in Moldova, and the Russian and American elite have joined forces in order to overthrow the shadow ruler of this country oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc.
But now, a year after his overthrow, the position of Russia in Moldova have become even worse than it was when Plahotniuc. If Moscow will go to a temporary Alliance with the West for the overthrow of Lukashenka, Belarus will be the same. This in the end will be the overthrow in favor of the West, Pro-Russian President there just does not appear.
-What are the scenarios?
-There is another option. If Lukashenka is still gonna beat this opposition “contagion”, then the path to the West would be closed for him. And the Russian leadership will again graciously agree to be friends with Lukashenko, who had just defeated the opposition, which invested including Russia.
Another issue is that even if Lukashenka, being again in bad relations with the West, would make�� for a new rapprochement with the Kremlin, it will be the Union of the series “was no joy love, parting will be without sorrow”. That is, the Union hate each other and no longer trust each other, politicians of the two countries. And objectively for the benefit of the true national interests of Russia and Belarus and the interests of their integration all this will not go.
the West will turn away in that case, if Lukashenko will go to some bloody crackdown on opposition?
-Yes, on the military option. Of course, the last time the West tried to move closer to Lukashenko on the basis of his anti-Russian drift. Of course, the West likes his “sons,” and always closes his eyes at their antics. Examples Of Somoza, Pinochet, Poroshenko. But it is only in the case when it’s “your son” originally. Your grown product. Lukashenko – not your. So, if he goes for the military option, in the West, he will again be in isolation.
Republican And Democratic party of the USA, if Lukashenko will go to suppress opposition, there will be sanctions and a new deterioration of relations with him. Europe is also in any case would not approve. On the other hand, there is China. China is behind the scenes, but still subject to all of the game for Belarus.
What is known about Tikhanovski, who is behind it?
-tikhanovski “popped up” unexpectedly. Until 2019 search the web it displays only on the ad on the website Craigslist about buying a car. He was a little known businessman, who was involved in a very wide and confusing range of different projects.
the Wide circles Belarusian mass it absolutely was not known until last year, when it suddenly started its own online channel and has become very hard to criticize the Belarusian authorities. In the style of Sharia, and, somewhat in the style of Zelensky.
At the same time, harshly criticizing Lukashenka, he says, for what he is. He gained a lot of popularity. Of course, there are questions. After all, it only seems that you should start your own channel and to produce high quality content and immediately go subscribers. No, there must be a lot of work on promotion. First, we need to seriously invest.
Who are the beneficiaries of the project “tikhanovski” is unknown. But they are definitely there. During a search in the country Tikhanovski found almost a million dollars. His mother, who was present during the search acknowledged that the money belongs to the family.
Pro-government media called him an agent of Moscow, despite the fact that he firmly opposed the Russian-Belarusian integration. The fact that tikhanovski is a very mysterious figure, standing behind a shadow, but a strong and influential beneficiaries.
that is the Russian project, I doubt it. Although within the Russian elite there are a variety of political players, and the interests of many of them opposed to the interests of Russia itself.
the -What will happen to Belarus after the election?
-If, however, comes before the election, the situation, in my opinion, will develop. Lukashenko won the first round, the votes will be “right.” The opposition, however, these results do not recognize, will start the protests.
Further possible options. Option A. Lukashenko will back down, agree to either give up power or share it with a kind of broad coalition of opposition forces. For example, to appoint the head of government, and in fact his co-Emperor, foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, the Pro-Western policies of Belarus.
But the option that he will share power, even less likely than that he’ll just leave. To share power – not in his nature. Therefore, it is likely these protests will crush. Unlike Yanukovych, he has to do, say, muscles. Security forces are unlikely to play against him.
the Main part of the security forces loyal to him. I think that they will suppress these protests. After that, Lukashenko, most likely, will remain in geopolitical solitude. At least from the West for sure. And he will have the following options. Or become a vassal of China, which for him only.
But technically, it is a little difficult. China too far. For Lukashenko this is a good option, but with big problems. Either he closed his eyes to the fact that the opposition, which he has just suppressed, partly acted by Moscow, again go cap in hand to the Kremlin.
But this option is actually destructive. It will be a Union of forces, so to each other antipathy, for Russian-Belarusian integration nothing good it will bring.
Belarusian opposition is preparing a version of independence?
I Think so. Will he accept extreme forms, as in Kiev, I don’t know. Although in the 90-ies in Belarus were frostbitten enough right-wing forces, the neo-Nazis. Many Belarusians fought in the Donbass on the side of Kiev. There are some militias, although they are not as noticeable as in Ukraine and it is unknown to what extent they can become the active force of these protests.
the Protest will go on more “grazers” than in Ukraine. But surely nothing can be predicted. Often combat troops are not advertised to the “X hours”. It is quite possible that they will be more prepared and numerous, and better armed than one might imagine now.
see also: Belarusian opposition rejected Russia: the secret meaning of the statements “Zhirinovsky in a skirt”
