the Tajik Authorities informed Moscow of its decision to resume flights from the UK. And stressed that “the process will be in strict compliance with sanitary norms and epidemiological requirements”. However, the fear is not only the entry of infected. “Newcomers may be competition for space with those who are already here working. Employers can declare such salaries, but their food will not suffice. Meanwhile, the growing army of unemployed Russians, and in the fall it is especially hard to manifest”, – predicts CEO of the Center for the development of regional policy Ilya Graschenkov.

– For Tajikistan flights from the UK – an urgent need, – says the analyst. – Let me remind you that two weeks ago, the citizens of Tajikistan, who can not leave Russia, came to the meeting to the Embassy in Moscow. Now, many are unable to earn food and housing, their situation is disastrous, and they are ready to leave home. It so happened that those wishing to leave was very much. This is due not only to coronavirus, but also its consequences. According to preliminary data, the work lost up to 75% migrants, more than 1 million people. Of course, many of them worked informally, so I guess the real figure is slightly less, around 500-600 thousand people, but it’s still very much. We were afraid that the migrants left without means of livelihood, will begin to Rob and steal, but until the crime situation is more or less quiet. During a pandemic, many robbed their own countrymen – couriers services-delivery of food, but widespread looting has not happened. Maybe because summer, yet there is no urgent need to look for a warm bed, and the Diaspora helps. But in any case, always sit without work, they will not.

Ilya, how much time can pass from the statement of the Tajik authorities to the real opening of flights?

– I Believe that the traffic can be opened after August 15 or September 1. In principle, there is no clear reference to dates, but so far no information about this either. If there is agreement between Russia and Tajikistan, I think soon they will announce the relevant Ministry of the government of Russia.

for example, the traffic opened up. Your prediction: what’s next? What are the migration flows? How many will leave Russia at home, how many will come? How will the control flow?

– Suppose in the home will want to return about 100 thousand migrants at least just as many can afford it – they have some savings, have the money for the tickets, there are relatives willing to take them. But the lion’s share of migrants, mostly young people, any savings has not, and they have nowhere to go. Returne home for them is fraught with even more falling into poverty, because no work, no food they can not find. Therefore, some part decide to remain blind, to be interrupted by casual earnings and probably not a legitimate business. As for new recruits, it is also quite possible, now Tajikistan, in the case with the work fared no better than in Russia. So many come at random, suddenly there is work, there’s something to it, definitely not. Therefore, I would like to have thought about it to immigration center did not issue such a number of patents on the work. Let me remind you that we grow our own army of the unemployed, and the fall will allow it to occur, when people will be left without any money and livelihood, and even on the possible “second wave”.

– whether it will turn out that arrived from Tajikistan will displace jobs from those already settled?

– Yes, newcomers may experience competition for places with those who are already here working. Beginners – the strike-breakers, they are willing to work in worse conditions than those who know the price tags. Therefore, employers may start to dump, to declare such salaries, but their food will not suffice. Need to maintain a balance that is now, or better yet, give jobs to our citizens without jobs. Migrants have to leave, but, in the end, you cannot bring the situation to the point where the country will be unemployed with no means of livelihood.