The largest economy in the world experienced the longest economic boom of all time, but now the recession is in the United States, fear. For months, the trade charged dispute with China in the world economy, and the end is not in sight.
In Switzerland, and this is not without a trace. A year ago, the local economy, with a growth rate of 2.5 percent to the most dynamic industrial countries. According to the official forecast, the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow this year by 1.2 percent, just half as fast.
in doing So, Switzerland is located at first glance of a recession, but there are significant risks. A recession is only a matter of time? And how cyclical turning points forecasting? These indicators give information.
The Swiss franc evaluates to
The recent threats by US President Donald Trump, the trade dispute with other duties against China continue to escalate, driving investors into safe havens such as Switzerland. The result: The Swiss franc is appreciating and is now against the Euro 1.09.
The rapid appreciation is weighing on the Swiss economy, in particular exports, which are suffering already under the weaker demand from abroad.
The economic experts of BAK Economics consider the currency, therefore, currently considered to be economic “special factor” that DAMPS economic growth. Any interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States will increase the pressure on the Swiss franc in the coming months. To SNB President Thomas Jordan and his Executive Board colleagues Zurbrügg and Maechler nervous to come-wracking days.
gloom in the industry
as The global downturn hits the industry, according to bleak, the mood is, such as the purchasing managers ‘ index (PMI) shows. He is regarded as a reliable indicator of a recession to be predicted. In this country of the industry-PMI fell for the first time in April, below the growth threshold of 50. In July, he not only 44.7 – so deep as since the economic crisis of 2009.
A sign of alarm, but so far “no red signals” (BAK Economics) for the entire Swiss economy. To industry-specific recessions, there could be nonetheless, in the MEM-industry or with investment goods producers such as mechanical engineering and electrical engineering. The strong service sector cushions the downward pressure on the economy as a whole currently – still–.
pessimism in the foreign trade
The industry makes the shrink to create demand from abroad. To Germany export of local companies in the first half of the year, 4.6 percent less. Add to that the appreciation of the Swiss franc, which Jean-Philippe Kohl, of Swissmem’s a head-scratcher.
According to pessimistic Swiss export companies look to the future. The good news: Overall, exports also rose in the second quarter to 1.4 percent. The independent economic pharmaceutical industry is provided. Also reduces the threat of Recession in Switzerland, says a BAK-Economist.
conclusion: Unpredictable risks
despite all indicators pointing to a recession. What – makes – especially in comparison to 2009-unpredictable, are the political risks.
If the trade conflict between Trump and Xi Jinping should continue to escalate and in the end even Europe is expanding, this would have a more direct impact on Switzerland. Trump’s playing with fire, playing Chinese. And tired of bearing the open economy, Switzerland.
This article was published in the “handelszeitung”. More exciting articles, see www.handelszeitung.ch.