First Finland pushed ahead, now Sweden is following behind: Concerned about Russia’s imperialism, the Scandinavians want to join NATO. There is a good chance that both countries will be included soon. But what weapons do the armies of the “peace-loving Scandinavians” actually have? And what does that mean for the balance of power between the West and Putin?

Russian President Vladimir Putin had probably imagined things differently: With his planned war of aggression, he wanted to take Ukraine hostage in two or three days, install a Russian-friendly puppet government and thus put a stop to Kyiv’s increasing orientation towards the EU and NATO.

But Putin succeeded in neither Plan A nor did he have a Plan B. For almost three months his troops have been wearing themselves out in an astonishingly unprofessional manner in the illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, without having made any decisive gains so far. The price that Russia is paying for this is not just thousands of Russian soldiers killed and sanctions that are becoming ever stricter, but also a demonstrative move closer together by the EU and NATO. Now Finland and Sweden, two previously neutral states, want to join NATO because they are afraid of Putin’s territorial escapades.

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It is not surprising that the armies of the two Scandinavian countries do not belong to the international military elite, at least in terms of numbers. But Sweden and Finland still offer significantly more military clout than one might think.

1. Sweden

The portal “Global Fire Power” lists Sweden out of a total of 142 militarily important countries in 25th place, just behind Poland. With this ranking, Sweden is still well ahead of other countries such as Greece (27th place), Norway (33rd), the Netherlands (37th) and the Czech Republic (41st). More than 50,000 soldiers are actively serving in the army.

Sweden has also been cooperating with NATO for many years and noticeably increased arms spending after Putin illegally occupied and annexed Crimea in Ukraine in 2014. The defense budget was 1.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2020 – and thus only 0.1 percent lower than the German one at the time.

According to the 2022 annual report by “The Military Balance”, the Swedish defense budget provides for the reestablishment of five regiments plus a new air force squadron for the period from 2021 to 2025. In addition, the country is taking measures to strengthen “social resilience” for the approximately 10 million inhabitants during times of civil emergency. In addition, the country has already started to put a withdrawn military base on the large Baltic Sea island of Gotland back into operation. The island is of great strategic importance due to its proximity to Poland, Lithuania and especially to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Among other things, Russian nuclear weapons are stationed there.

Sweden is also currently upgrading its artillery. Among other things, Sweden has ordered modern mortars for almost 50 million euros. In addition, the Ministry of Defense in Stockholm is planning a joint order for wheeled armored vehicles with neighboring Finland and Latvia. In addition, two new submarines are on the Secretary of Defense’s list.

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2. Finland

According to the current yearbook “The Military Balance”, the Finns only have a relatively small army of 19,200 soldiers, despite the direct land border with Russia being more than 1,300 kilometers long. However, in an emergency, it can be increased by 185,000 reservists fairly quickly – and thus swell to a considerable size. In total there are almost 900,000 reservists. And thus almost a fifth of the entire country’s population. At 1.5 percent, the defense budget in 2020 was even 0.2 percent higher than that of Germany.

Like Sweden, Finland has significantly increased cooperation with NATO in recent years. The same is true for defense spending, which has grown from just over $3 billion in 2015 to $5.14 billion in 2021. And in the top ranking of “Global Fire Power”, which takes into account the entire effectiveness of the military, the Finns are 54th, right behind Belarus – and ahead of Hungary (57th), Austria (59th), Slovakia (60th) , Serbia (61) and Croatia (62).

The Finnish Navy is currently replacing patrol and mine boats with modern corvette-class vessels. Although they are among the smaller warships, they are considered to be the most powerful category that swims in this class. In addition, the country has already decided to increase the number of troops in the coming years.

The announcements by the two countries that they are now submitting their applications for membership at NATO headquarters in Brussels undoubtedly also harbor risks, as the Russian saber-rattling, which has been audible from the Kremlin for days, announces unmistakably.

On the one hand, neither the governments in Helsinki nor in Stockholm would have decided to take this drastic step if Putin hadn’t started this insane war against Ukraine and threatened the whole of Europe with a nuclear mace. Just as it echoes into the forest, it echoes out of it. Even the warmonger in the Kremlin could have known that.

Secondly, the new additions are a net gain for the alliance militarily. Provided that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is increasingly under domestic political pressure, does not resent his veto in the NATO Security Council. Defense spending is more likely to increase in the coming years. Because the example of Germany’s announced “time change” makes it clear how great the willingness can suddenly be to give the armed forces a high priority.

Vladimir Putin alone is to blame for this. With Finland and Sweden, he may now have two new NATO countries in close proximity to his own borders, with armed forces known to be excellent winter fighters. And which, even before joining, were increasingly leaning towards NATO.

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