In comparison to the disastrous, last year on the stock market the first quarter of 2019, more than see. The Swiss benchmark index SMI has risen since the beginning of the year 12,44% and tends in the direction of the all-time high, which is located at 9616 points. “Investors have realized that the economy is weaker, but no recession in front of the door,” said Thomas Stucki (55), chief Investment officer of St. Galler Kantonalbank.

the stop at the interest rate have Helped increases by the us Central Bank, the Fed. In addition, the prospect of continued cheap money had stimulated the markets, justified Stucki the good mood on the trading floors. “In addition, it was around the trade dispute between the United States and China, and the punitive tariffs.”

Lafarge, Holcim stock market darling,

is To large, SMI-winners of the cement group Lafarge, Holcim, the food Multi-Nestlé and the Phramazulieferer Lonza. “The fall in the fear of the economy have played Lafarge, Holcim and Lonza in the cards. At the same time, more defensive shares such as Nestlé have benefited from the security in the current environment, still their value,” says Stucki.

At the lower end of the scale, the joy is marred. The watch manufacturer Swatch, the big Bank UBS, as well as the industrial group ABB are among the losers. “Swatch suffered from the economic weakness in China. FIG made the planned new strategy with the sale of the business around the power of networks to create,” says Stucki. And UBS chief Executive Sergio Ermotti (58) warned recently in front of a bad business in the first quarter. This caused investors to distrust.

Troubled times are before

that means For investors: The gains of about 12 percent in the SMI do after the losses in the past year. At the same time the recovery of the market is very fast and very strong. Stucki warns: “The mood is currently positive, I see the situation is critical.”

A recession is not have to worry about investors this year. “But the economy will be in this year and next is weaker than 2018. The company will be earning less,” says Stucki. In the stock market, investors are already preparing for the more unsettled times.