To the end of the week, the SMI was once more right thrust, climbed to new all-time high of 9786,5 points. However, at the close of trading, the air was back out there, compared to the previous day, there was a small Minus.
But that does nothing to change the current level of flight in the Swiss equity market. Since the beginning of the year, the SMI has risen over 15 percent of their value. Mainly driven by the cautious policy of the Central banks in the interest area, and a tolerably well-the current world economy.
As long as the amount to take flight?
All of this leads to the fact that at the Moment, no interest rate increases are in sight, which would be bad for business in the stock markets. Because rising interest rates increase the cost of credit for businesses and provide security to investors-considered an Alternative to shares.
Slowly, the question arises, however, how long this steep rise that lasts for weeks, it can go further. For a while, believes Raiffeisen chief economist Martin Neff (58): “10’000 points are a magical brand. The could be cracked.” Yes, only two to three percent would be missing. “But then, the air is very thin,” warns Neff.
correction, but no Crash
A veritable Crash was not, however, in sight, but a correction of five to ten percent spent down all because of it, so Neff: “at The Moment, a lot of optimism is in the courses. Not all expectations will be fulfilled. Therefore, I assume that we will experience disappointments.” Big optimists had not expected a rate cut by the US Central Bank. However, this did not this week, the pressure of the US President, Trump. Is leaving the key interest rate where it is, and emphasises their independence.
A possible scenario: The SMI hits the 10’000 point mark. It will come to profit-taking. SMI corrects the rapid growth of the first months, adapted to the real economic circumstances.
A cool stock market summer is before
The growth of the US economy is likely to weaken in the next few months, several indicators suggest that. In addition, China is pumping as much money into the economy. Can’t even afford the “middle Kingdom” unlimited in a long time. And then there’s the Brexit: The have change not only the English but also the traders displaced. At the latest, in the autumn, the European fate of the UK is back in the news.
now that the German economy is slightly falters for Neff clear: “In the summer, there will be a correction in the stock markets!” Fortunately, the is also the weather, yet a whole piece.