According to the IMF forecast, the public debt of the developed countries in 2020 will increase by 26 percentage points, to of 131.2% of GDP and public debt of developing countries is 10.7 p. p. to 63.1% of GDP, Siluanov said.
Earlier, newspaper RBC noticed that the collapse in oil prices, the purchase of the savings Bank and rising costs due to the pandemic has led to the fact that the debt of the Federal government again exceeded its liquid reserves (as of July 1 the difference amounted to 1.55 trillion rubles). The Finance Ministry is forced to compensate for falling oil and gas revenues and to increase expenditures in excess of the limits defined by the budget rule. Additional costs in 2020 in the amount of more than 3 trillion rubles is expected to be funded by increased internal hozaystvennih and use of ruble balances, reminded the publication.
Restrictions on business activities due to the pandemic and the reduction in oil prices along with the need to Fund programs to support citizens and businesses demanded some increase in the national debt, but it is a common practice inherent in the absolute majority of countries in the world where the level of debt exceeds the assets of governments at times, and even dozens of times, said Siluanov.
“overall, macroeconomic indicators in Russia show a high stability of economy and financial system, as evidenced by the high level of foreign exchange reserves of nearly 600 billion dollars, – said the Minister. – This assessment adhere to international investors and rating agencies recently confirmed credit rating of Russia to investment level”.
According to the forecast Fitch, Russia’s state debt will increase from 14.6 to 18.5% of GDP in 2020, but remain the lowest among countries with similar credit rating (“BBB”), and by 2022 Russia will be able to stabilize public debt at around 20% of GDP. Fitch forecasts Russia’s international reserves, which from the beginning of the year thanks to the rally in gold and the Euro rose from 554 billion to $ 600 billion by the end of the year will amount to 570 billion dollars. This is enough to Finance external obligations for 18 months. Liquid assets of the national welfare Fund will remain above 7% of GDP in 2020 (currently at 7.7%), moreover, specifies Fitch, the government accounts have more money in comparable size – 6.6% of GDP.
