Russia will pay for Lukashenko's

Compensation for “dirty” oil in “Friendship” is not the last compensation is that bargained Lukashenko in Russia. According to the Belarusian President, after his telephone conversation with Putin that took place on 21 February, the head of our country promised to pay Belarus $300 million being lost by the Federal government as a result of Russian tax reforms.

meanwhile, since 2000, Minsk, Belarus bought Russian oil at a discount of 17%, due to which Russia has subsidized the Belarusian economy. In 2017, an agreement was signed the two countries, allowing Belarus to 2024 to up to 18 million tons of oil at preferential prices. Minsk started to pick up in his Treasury in export duties from the “Peremogi” (complex tax scheme that allows to obtain fiscal charging the raw material supplier is not the country-the exporter and the importer) are still 5-6 million tons of raw materials. Most of the raw material Republic processed and re-exported to Europe. The grant from Russia’s increased revenues to the budget of Belarus $3 billion, representing 5% of the GDP of the Republic.

“Tax maneuver”, which the Russian Federation started in 2019, led to lower export duties. The income of the Belarusian budget began to fall. In 2024 Russia intends to reset the export duty that Belarus will be deprived of financial privileges and the price of oil will rise to the world level. As Lukashenko says his country is ready to buy “black gold” on world prices. Analyst CC “Finam” Alexey Kalachev considers that, in principle, alternative oil supplies to Belarus, which until recently received only Russian raw materials, we can get: 30% of the hydrocarbon Minsk may import through the territory of Lithuania and still the same through Ukraine.

However, the savings in the case of such diversification would be questionable. According to the expert, Belarus does not have its own access to the sea for energy delivery. Minsk then you have to resort to services of intermediaries. Now a barrel of Brent costs about $54. Passka in Klaipeda will increase the price of “the barrel” for Belarus at $10. Subsequent costs — the volume of transshipment, pumping into tanks, drain on railroad overpasses and quality control — will require payments still in $40-45. In other words, a barrel of “black gold”, for example, from Norway to Minsk will cost at least $100. That is almost three times more expensive than Russian raw materials.

Moscow does not confirm that Russian-Belarusian oil disagreements resolved. As stated by the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov, the dialogue between the parties continues. Energy Minister Alexander Novak says that our country has proposed a formula for the price of oil for Belarus with a reduction in premium of $2 per ton every year, which will only partially offset the effect of cuts in export duties.

According to the Director of Fund of power development Sergey pikina, the background in the energy standoff between Moscow and Minsk is not in oil prices. The integration of the economies of both countries, scheduled to be completed in 2024, should lead to the unification of the tax regime. Meanwhile, the Belarusian economy is almost 30 times loses Russian. “Oil is just an excuse. The main objective of Lukashenka to negotiate advantageous to economic conditions that will allow the use of more appealing Russian fiscal schemes already now”, — the expert believes.