the Money issue was considered the most extreme method of saving the economy under the current leadership of the Central Bank. Elvira Nabiullina has always opposed the “light of economic decisions” for fear of the return in the 1990s, with their terrible inflation. Apparently, the moment still came. The Central Bank is going to print up to 1.5 trillion rubles to patch a hole in the budget, not by the despoiling of the national welfare Fund. According to the Constitution the issue of money in Russia runs the Central Bank. And he made the decision: newly printed money to spend in the real economy, not for direct payments to the population, and his players — the banks.
in may, the Central Bank launches a new mechanism of investments in the financial sector. The regulator plans to lend banks using the schema REPO, announced the head of the regulator at the last press conference. The essence of the mechanism is as follows: the Central Bank buys from the banks Federal loan bonds, and the banks undertake to buy them back after a certain period, drawing the interest equal to the key rate. Mechanism of REPO transactions beneficial to both parties: the banks get a secured loan of the securities, and the Central Bank will earn income from selling selling. For the redemption of OFZ bonds from banks, the regulator and plans to print half a trillion, as revealed by Bloomberg.
the Strategic importance of maneuver that banks, as intermediaries between government and subjects of the economy, get the money supply to Deposit and credit activities and the implementation of anti-crisis tools (deferments on loans, preferential mortgages). Troubled banks that will protect it from bankruptcy and save the Bank from spending on sanitation. REPO auctions will be scheduled monthly, and the loans will be issued on the month and year. Thus, using the month and year for banks to buy its bonds, and returned the money to the Bank.
the Budget of Russia and national welfare Fund scheme, the Central Bank can help indirectly. By law, the Bank of Russia can not directly Finance government spending and may not grant credits to the government. Can’t just be spent on the needs of the budget and funds of the NWF. Therefore we have to come up with different schemes bypass: the shares of the savings Bank to buy reserves, then to pour money in the budget, the banks to lend, but not just so, and on the security of government bonds.
All this is like playing a shell game where the government and banks cleverly hiding the elusive ball from the rapidly impoverished the people, saying: “twist-twirl, want to cheat”. Why not print the money, just to give people? Is it fair that the only direct beneficiaries printed rubles will be lenders is an eternal evil from Gogol’s “the Portrait”, bringing nothing but misery?
The money issue is serious contraindications. Russia, with its growing (read: weak) economiccoy contraindications more. The main risk, according to economic theory, this dramatic acceleration of inflation. When you have “extra” money, the prices go up, so the money went to those who raised prices. High inflation — a nightmare for the Russian authorities, deja vu from the 1990s. However, coronarica and falling oil prices, the authorities have tortured another nightmare — complete depletion of the SWF. If the jug is empty, then all social promises will turn into zilch. And let Finance Minister calmly repeats that the reserves will last until 2024, neither independent experts, nor common sense do not confirm this. At the current rate the reserves slept in maybe two years but how long will the economic crisis caused by a coronavirus, the big question.
it Seems that the new nightmare was worse. The printing press is still uncovered. But maybe it’s not so scary? At least for the state. The current crisis so severe that inflation is nowhere to be dispersed. Two months of quarantine, the Russians have outdone themselves in the fine art of belt-tightening. There is no place to spend money: everything is closed. Imports: from Russia money does not go.
In these conditions, the money issue is not so dangerous. The recipient is announced — banks, the poor one was not. And now his successful completion of the idea to give money to the banks will be obliged to the fact that in a sinking economy bogged down even by inflation. You know, right? The success of the launch of the printing press — our poverty.