their Own money to save from the effects of coronavirus to our country is clearly not enough. As stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the budget deficit in 2020 will be about 4%, as revenues will be by the end of 2020 in 4 trillion rubles less than planned. Savings of the national welfare Fund, which amounts to 13 trillion to stabilize the financial balance will not be enough. To replace the lack of money, the Finance Minister expects the external borrowing. Experts have expressed doubts that our country is under pressure from Western economic sanctions that will achieve the required credits, and if you get them, the interest for loans is likely to be a “space”.
to compensate For lost oil and gas revenues, the Finance Ministry plans to borrow up to 1.5-2% of GDP. Still 4-4,5 trillion rubles Russia plans to attract in 2020 possible additional costs. Such a move will be vital. According to Siluanov, the loss incurred by all manufacturing industries: 1.5 trillion less than the budget receives from oil and gas revenues of 2 trillion rubles reduced income from non-primary industries. As a result, the budget deficit in 2020 will be about 4% of GDP.
the Minister assured that the government cuts expenses and increases them. This year they should grow by more than 1 trillion rubles. “But you need to stop,” — said Siluanov, adding that the support of health and sanitary-epidemiological measures will be allocated 200 billion roubles. He confirmed that social obligations are met, although plans for a number of indicators of national projects in 2020 can be qualified. In General, the total amount of support of economy from the budget by 2020, the Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 6.5% of GDP.
Where to get missing in the budget deficit means? To take – the answer was Siluanov. Indeed, according to the respondents “MK” experts, at present, given the relatively small level of public debt, Russia could afford new loans. But for loans will have to pay with interest, and having at the disposal of the government “store” in the face of the national welfare Fund, is declining rapidly in the current crisis conditions.
“the Payout as interest on loans 1.5% of GDP annually — a substantial sum for the Russian budget. These losses the government will compensate from other sources. For the population and business, most likely, it will mean increased tax burden: the increase in rates and the emergence of new objects of tax administration, that will slow the economic recovery. Loans on international markets, only a partial solution to the problem, which will lead to negative consequences. StatementI the amount of 4-4,5 trillion rubles looks overvalued,” — said the head of the Luxembourg office of the consulting group KRK Group Nikita Ryabinin.
“In developing countries the cost of borrowing is higher than in countries with developed economies. This is due to the higher risks of investments and interest rates on loans. In Europe as a whole they are close to zero, and we remain at above 5%. Level annual payments at 1.5% of GDP is about 1.6 trillion rubles. Under such loans debt service from the state will leave twice as much money than with new loans. To take abroad is now quite profitable. The percentage of new loans will increase the share of public debt from 17% to 21-22% of GDP”, — said the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
Experts agree that Russia will have to seriously look for where and how to attract money. “The volume of Russia’s GDP in 2019 amounted to about 110 trillion. In the year 2020 because of the coronavirus, the country will lose their savings in recent years, as the decline in GDP in the positive scenario, may amount to 4-6% and about 8% when negative”, — considers the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev.
With such statistics it is obvious that to compensate for falling oil and gas revenues, the state will not only be at the expense of the national welfare Fund, but at the expense of borrowed funds. “Of course, the current situation of the Russian economy is not the exit to the porch, but the extended hand is already noticeable. I would not want to over outstretched legs” — bitterly joked Deev.