The energy centre of Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO presented response scenarios of the Russian Federation on the policies of other countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions — including the decline of Russian exports of hydrocarbons. According to researchers, the optimal for Russia would be to lead the movement in this direction by adopting a very ambitious goal to reduce emissions and redirect investment in fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.Presented yesterday a study of energy Centre Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO notes that a key role in the environmental agenda starts to play not only the peculiarities of its implementation and regulation in the Russian Federation, but also the plans of other countries (many of which are large importers of the products of Russian fuel and energy sector) to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Key assumptions of the report — on the territory of the Russian Federation in the last 40 years, climate warming occurs 2.5 times faster than the average for the planet (in the Russian part of the Arctic — 4.5 times faster), and projections suggest that this pace will accelerate. At the same time the world’s climate agenda “posed a long-term threat to Russian exports against major commodities — oil, petroleum products, coal, natural gas, metals, forest products and chemical industry”: “carbon footprint” of products is not only important consumer characteristics, but also the basis for the introduction of a border carbon adjustment (Border Carbon Tax as in the EU). “Russia’s reaction on the climate threat may depend on the pace of the global response to climate change, and the attitude of the Russian society and state to this problem. The basic choice is between two extreme scenarios — “Continuation of current policy” and “Global climatic unity, the study says.In both scenarios the Russian export of hydrocarbons is reduced by 2040 15% compared to 2015 in real terms and 17% in money. While estimates of researchers Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO show that the decline in energy exports poses a threat to the slowdown in growth of Russian GDP to 0.6–0.8% per year by 2040. “All these estimates were made before the “coronaries”, and taking into account the influence COVID-19 on the situation on energy markets all the forecasts are even more negative. In addition, it is obvious that the horizon 2040 in these scenarios, the decline in exports and its negative impact on GDP will only continue to increase”,— the authors believe.”The continuation of current policy” strengthens the country’s contribution to climate change against the background of lower demand for Russian exports and its risks, in the opinion of the authors of the study, long-term be higher. “Global climate unity” also implies “securing climate protection status national priority, the involvement of a country as ambitious goals to reduce emissions, massive investment in low-carbon technologies and reducing investment in fossil fuels” — however, its implementation for the Russian Federation also raises the risk of losing markets and revenues decrease key sectors of the economy and tax revenues amid the rising cost of heat and electricity. Advantages of this scenario declared economic diversification and stimulation of innovative development model based on the capture of new markets, including innovative fuel oil and gas processing industry.The promotion of “climate leadership” requires the creation of the state system of climate monitoring, restart, energy efficiency programmes and support initiatives are expensive “carbon-free” exports and the reform of natural resources management, including — for the sake of benefiting the absorptive capacity of Russian forests. According to the authors, the current situation is an opportune moment for selection in favor of exactly this scenario: the world economy from the “coronaries” will be associated with massive government support and promotion of the green economy that will benefit the industries competing with the energy industry, and the enterprises of the latter should “think about the prospects of industry restructuring and integration of the hydrocarbons in the green agenda.”Angelina Davydov, Alexey Shapovalov
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