Russia may benefit from conflict the United States and China

they Say that total brings misfortune. If it is so, then someone forgot to inform the China and America. Before the onset of coronavirus in the world the era of the two superpowers of the XXI century were in constant fierce trade war. And now they are no less fiercely sobachatina of who should bear the responsibility for the epidemic. According to the authoritative and absolutely not prone to “running ducks”, the South China Morning Post (headquarters of the media is relatively free from official censorship of the Chinese Autonomous region of China Hong Kong), the next virtual summit of “big twenty” was cancelled at the last moment for this reason.

Sounds like a baby playing in the sandbox? Part of the way it is. To completely solve the problem coronavirus, dispersed in their national quarters, it is impossible. Although the phrase “ full-scale international cooperation” emanates weariness and hopelessness, but it really will not do. So instead, we see bickering about who’s to blame. It’s a shame? Of course – but not only because of the reasons I mentioned above. In Russia we know that very often the highest international policy actually boils down to “children’s games in a sandbox”. And yet we instinctively feel: the epidemic of the coronavirus significantly reduces our freedom of hands during games in this “world sandbox”.

That’s about these trends in the article on the website of the Carnegie Moscow center recently wrote one of the finest contemporary Russian foreign policy thinkers Andrey Kortunov: “Pandemic coronavirus dramatically accelerate the restructuring of international relations in the direction of the bipolar us-China system…Moscow and Brussels ( the European UnionMK) will exit the current woes not just weakened, but also significantly weaker against other players of world politics.” “Other players in world politics” in Washington and Beijing understand everything very well in advance and try to take the most advantageous positions in anticipation of future postcoronary era.

of Course, linesyou U.S.-China quarrel cannot be entirely reduced to a big and for decades to come strategic game. In this quarrel a lot of superficial, short-term and konyunkturno. It is important to remember this November in the USA will take place (or at least should be) presidential election. Before the advent of the coronavirus President and candidate in the next presidential Donald trump felt quite comfortable. Notorious Muller’s investigation ended in one big zilch. Attempt to declare the President’s impeachment ultimately played in his favor. The economy was in a supportive phase. Trump was a real chance to shame the Democrats and the American traditional political establishment for the second time in a row.

And then suddenly there is a coronavirus, and in place of the beauty comes an acute crisis. To be responsible for this crisis trump, of course, do not want. In his trademark style, the President begins to frantically search for whom such a responsibility can be blamed. The search ends as soon as they begin. Bingo! The culprit is found! This is China – the country from which the virus has spread worldwide and which, by a curious coincidence of the already is the main U.S. rival in the struggle for world leadership. From awkward to trump plane political catastrophe – the American health care system has clearly demonstrated its limited effectiveness in the fight against the virus – the situation goes into quite comfortable for the President and the usual for the majority of citizens of the United States the plane of the aggressive confrontation with the evil, insidious and immoral foreign enemy.

You have to sympathize with China, which has become a victim of unfair accusations and even slander on the part of trump? I would have refrained from the display of such emotions. Guided by the principle “treat others as he treats you”, we are in the conflict is much more sympathetic to Beijing than to Washington. But how well applied to the situation with coronavirus and we know our “friend, brother and strategic ally”? If you’re paranoid, it doesn’t mean that you do not follow. If trump brings China a lot of grotesque and unfair-sounding accusations, it does not mean that Beijing does not hide anything. Stealth, the desire at all costs to save face and “sweep under the carpet” evidence of its own failures and mistakes – a very important feature both traditional and contemporary Chinese political culture.

for example, in the book known Western expert on the political mysteries of the middle Kingdom Richard McGregor’s “the Party: the secret world of the Communist rulers of China” describes a key moment happened in 2008, the scandal with the poisoning of infant formula, “ Before the Olympic games ( in Beijing MK) remained exactly one week almost to the minute when the Board is China’s largest supplier of dairy mixes gathered for an emergency meeting. Very soon in the conference room the atmosphere of depression, almost of panic…the Meeting, which was attended by about ten people, headed by Chairman Tian Wenhua, which turned municipal dairy farm famous nationwide brand. Ms. Tien has allowed a fierce debate sanatoria for a few hours and before sunrise finally decided: VMthere is open recognition that the products are contaminated, it is of course necessary to conceal. The Board have decided to release stocks of poisonous milk powder, replacing it with a freshly safe. And that managed to snap up consumers, let it at home, while the kids will not eat”.

it all Ended up after the Olympics terribly: chemical poisoning 290 of thousands of children and prestom Mrs. Tien and many of her colleagues. But the question is: who was the most Madame Tien – hearted criminal or caught in a hopeless apcan scapegoat? Closely examining the nuances of the Chinese unwritten political norms, Richard MacGregor proves that and those and others. If the scandal became public before the very important for the authorities, with the image point of view of the Olympics, in the eyes of Beijing, “dairy boss” would do no less unforgivable. According to McGregor, deliberately allowing children to be poisoned, Ms. Tien received based on her rich management experience of rational political decision.

Citing here this long history, I certainly do not allude to that. I’m just stating the obvious: we don’t know to what extent you can trust the official information of the Chinese authorities about the origin of the coronavirus and the number of his victims inside the country. We don’t know also about the extent to which the rhetoric in Washington about the scale of the hidden influence of Beijing at the International health organization is pointing the shadows on the fence, and what is based on facts. We can only carefully observe what is happening, to notice inconsistencies in the positions of the parties and to do so on the basis of these discrepancies the conclusions. And we must remember once sformulirovana Henry Kissinger principle: in the triangle Moscow-Beijing-Washington in the most advantageous position is the angle at which the least conflictual relationship with the other two corners. I don’t know if we can be that “ lucky corner”. But try definitely worth it.