the Morning of may 26 deliveries through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe”, passing through Poland, was completely stopped. In an effort to diversify its fuel supply, Warsaw refused Russia in the transit of energy resources. But it can even benefit our company. Europe is now not interested in gas. Storage countries of the Old world are crowded, and the prices are close to zero, therefore, Gazprom may be the time to tighten the taps and switch of the supply to the “Nord stream” and the Ukrainian railway. Sell fuel savings will be possible when demand will grow and prices will go up. However, it is obvious that “Gazprom” will have to accept a marked reduction in the revenue due to falling prices and declining supplies. Furthermore, Russia risks losing part of the energy market of Europe, which steadily filled the national budget needed petrodollars.
that deliveries through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe” has completely stopped, no one believed. Warsaw broke the contract with Gazprom on transit of gas through the territory of the country in force a quarter of a century, at the end of 2019. Poland looking for new suppliers of gas and was going to enter into contracts with the United States. However, the decline in Russian exports via the Polish lands was very slow: from January to March the volume of supply decreased by about 15%, which could be explained by seasonal factors. However, on 26 may, the figure that declined to 40 thousand times to a minimum, and then approached zero.
as a result, Russia has lost the export channel, which existed for over 30 years and provides up to 15% of the total gas exports of the country. Now Russia will have to diversify routes of gas supplies to offset the loss from covered pipe.
However, the Russian gas concern has already prepared for the “Yamal-Europe”. Now “Gazprom” will have to book transit capacity from the operator of the Polish pipeline system Gaz-System, and such agreements will be for a short time. In June the power of this section of the pipeline purchased by 93%, and for third quarter — 80%. There is reason to believe that a large part of the transit was bought by the Russian side. According to the press-Secretary of “Gazprom” Sergei Kupriyanov, despite the Polish side terminated a long-term contract, the export of Russian “blue fuel” through Poland, “one way or another will continue.” Auction for the following gas year (from October 2020 to September 2021) scheduled for July 6. The size of the volumes that Gazprom will buy at these auctions, it will be clear how much fuel he is going to put through Poland during this time.
at the same time, the Russian company is increasing its supplies through the Nord stream and the Ukrainian GazoprovodOh the system. In particular, the transit through the pipe Square with the beginning of year “Gazprom” has increased by more than half. Growth of supply in the “Nord stream” are also increasing, although not at such high rates. “To save raw materials, the Russian company is worth nothing “to turn off the tap” to save the gas until better times, when the cost of energy will go to the mountain” — said the head of the national energy Institute Sergei Pravosudov. Pipeline through the Baltic sea, which Germany has lifted restrictions on fuel exports, and the Ukrainian highways are quite capable to replace the lost channel through Poland.
meanwhile, the cost of “blue fuel” in the European market approached a critical point and even close to zero marks. On the background of the pandemic coronavirus, the growth of exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the US led to oversupply of the commodity in the Old world. Although experts predict a decline in the supply of LNG, the export of “Gazprom” in the EU for the year could be reduced by 30% and revenue by 20%.
However, much more damage to Russia may suffer from the fact that, as experts believe, our country will reduce its share of the gas the European gas market by almost 5%. Despite the current prices, it equals billions of dollars of revenue. Also we can not exclude that Ukraine will maximally hinder the growth of Russian gas transit through its territory, insisting on its own interests. Export of Gazprom to Europe will be threatened and some European countries can use the example of Poland, which won the Russian company in the Stockholm arbitration court the claim for compensation of $1.5 billion for the supply of fuel at prices above market levels. It is possible that similar claims will put the Russian side, and other EU States.
