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Shortly after introduction in Moscow a regime of self-isolation, my wife went to buy the beef from our favorite butcher shop in the neighborhood. Seeing her dressed in a mask and gloves friend saleswoman where there was no protection, patronizingly laughed: “do not worry you so! No coronavirus no! It’s all political! I know: my friend feesbeshnik said!”

As it became clear from studies of the Higher school of economy, people with similar views in Russia very much. About a quarter of citizens of the Russian Federation considers coronavirus brazen “fabrication of stakeholders”. And most alarming is that the number of skeptics is growing.

on April 5 that no epidemic there has not been and will not be believed or 10.4% of people. By 12 may, the number has almost doubled — to 20.7%. Over the next two weeks, growth has slowed, but not stopped. On 26 may, the figure was 23.2%.

what to believe and what not to believe, as it is known, individual matter. But there is another fundamental principle: individual rights and freedoms of the individual end where they begin to violate individual rights and freedoms of others. The epidemic of the coronavirus is very clearly highlighted this conflict.

As the person even can not think to question the existence of COVID-19, I am absolutely convinced that the scope and duration of the epidemic in Russia is the most direct way depends on the ability of the authorities to maintain the society in a mobilized state. The gradual lifting of restrictions in Moscow on the background of the fall in the number of cases should not lead us into a state of complacency. Meanwhile, such a state of complacency we seem to be covering.

Conclusions HSE States that: “an Estimate of the population of the dangers of the virus in Russia continues to decline and now stands at 5.02 points out of 10. This is the lowest level since mid-March, when the first wave of the study.

overall, only a quarter of respondents said that the peak of the epidemic in Russia is still ahead. A month ago, that number was half. 16,3% believe that the peak of the epidemic passed, and she was going to decline”.

let’s Not blame everything on excessive optimism of the population. The belief of ordinary citizens that the darkest days are ahead, fueled by statistics, and statements from the very top. But there is another statistic. Thanks to the good-natured President of Brazil Bolsonaro, who seem to spoke with the same “a feesbeshnik” as the saleswoman at our butcher shop, and really scored on combating the virus, Russia lost the second position in the list of countries with the largest number of cases.

But in the sense of the possibility of Contracting we are still in the “red zone”. Moreover, this area may have increased because of our inevitable mental��coy demobilization.

At the end of March my wife seriously considered the possibility a few months not to leave the apartment at all anywhere, even the store. Now me, on the contrary, I have to restrain her impulses in a hurry to throw off the hateful chains of restrictions.

Isolation is something totally alien to human nature. To deal with the average person can only for a limited period of time — until the fear of a monstrous new threat won’t change the addictive to it. The authorities understand the principle of this built in us the psychological mechanism. A couple of weeks ago, one of Putin’s closest associates told me in all seriousness: “If the restrictions will soon start to soften, people can just start sending us to hell!”

Say rude, but very true. One of the main dangers now is the possibility of switching events in the uncontrolled area of education, the yawning gap between bureaucratic reality, where all the uncomfortable restrictions are strictly observed, and the reality that is actually there on our streets.

it will Happen or not, the most direct way depends on the extent to which the authorities manage to preserve what is called the English word credibility — the ability to inspire confidence, ability to speak clear and persuasive language. If this skill is not there is what experts call the credibility gap — a crisis of confidence. In some regions of Russia, in fact, happened.

a few days before the personal intervention of Vladimir Putin to the situation in Dagestan, I was amazed to read an interview with me very respected head of the Republic Vladimir Vasiliev — was read the first time, then second, then third, but still could not shake the feeling deep perplexity.

Of numbers, called the head of the Republic was that in Dagestan quite successfully struggle with СOVID-19, but can not cope with surging parallel epidemic of community-acquired pneumonia. All this leaves the impression of a certain understatement, a forced bureaucratic balancing act. Putin with his ability to call a spade a spade not left from this masterpiece of a stone. But some of the “bureaucratic logjams” in Dagestan, from my point of view, still not parsed.

And to understand them it is necessary, because the slightest crack in which can settle the infamous credibility gap needs to be tightly cemented. If this is not done, the doubt will never end. If the issues are numbers from one region, it is possible to trust to the figures of the other?

Power must not be afraid to admit their mistakes and miscalculations. Pleasant admitting your mistakes, of course, is not enough. But I know of no other withthe way to reduce the number of those who believe that coronavirus is an invention of the absolute, even brutal honesty. And to reduce the number of such people is absolutely necessary. Here is another portion of statistics from the HSE. Among those who believe in the existence of coronavirus, only 11, and 85% continued to meet with friends during the regime of isolation. But among those who do not believe, the share of such people is 41,39%. To decipher what these numbers mean is probably not required.

due To objective historical reasons, the relations between the authorities and society in Russia are often based on mutual antagonism and mistrust. In epidemics beneficiary of this state of Affairs is clearly a coronavirus. That’s worth thinking about all. And those in society who continued and continues to live as if nothing happened. And those in power who sometimes cuts straight from the shoulder and takes not quite realistic and not end up thoughtful solutions.