someday — and we believe that in the foreseeable future — all the channels the “voice of Levitan” will report that the war with the coronavirus was crowned with complete and final victory. And now “again all” (as usual, a number of caveats in the fine print, but let’s not quibble). We will come to street and first days, probably, will think only about how wonderful “you outside” and free movement in the streets. But almost immediately we discover that the world into which we went, is different from the world we left for isolation. What and how it will change? Who is right — those who say that the old life will be no more, or their opponents, claiming that the familiar world will return almost completely?
We decided to ask professionals in different industries who are now watching coronavirus crisis and try to see in the fog the outlines of the future.
— As only one of two things happens — will develop a vaccine or a massively large part of the population have been ill, — everything will return to almost the same level as it was before the virus, says Alexander Morozov co-chair Interregional public Association “City and transport”. Trends show an increase of mobility: technology allows us to communicate remotely, but people want to chat directly. Similarly, and order products remotely has all the same pluses and minuses as before the virus: I still don’t want strangers come to the house, don’t want to sit on the suitcases and all the time to wait for them. And if we are all vaccinated or have had, what to fear, until a new virus?
Expert “Cities and transport” Vladimir Sviridenkov believes that public transport will be forced to evolve after the epidemic. “It is clear that to ensure the necessary from the point of view of epidemiologists the level of distancing and to retain the current strain on public transport, says Sviridenkov. — By the way, a mask mode, perhaps in the metro will remain for some time after the removal of quarantine, because the epidemic is not suppressed, as happened in China. Note that in many far Eastern cultures wear masks even out of the epidemic”.
Another “quarantine” innovation on the Moscow public transport — the rejection of lack of tickets (recall that it is now impossible to purchase a single ticket, pay the fare by Bank card or phone, and the number “Three” must be tied to pass around the city). Vladimir Sviridenkov does not expect that from this kind of tickets would refuse altogether. Soon after their return “anonymous” travel will become more expensive. So arranged the tariff system in many countries: a lack of “tourist” tickets that can be transferred to another person, sold at higher rates.
Curiously, the current epidemiologicalMIA highlighted a key advantage of “obsolete” as suggested by many transport solutions — a personal car. Now it is the most reliable way to get around and not be infected with coronavirus, the probability of contact with native speakers is minimal. Nevertheless, the “legitimization” of a personal vehicle is not expected, insists co-Chairman of the Association “City and transport” Alexander Morozov: global trend of rejection of personal ownership (and related issues — the maintenance, repair, etc.) clearly prevails over a local issue.
— Hope that the great safety of car-sharing compared to a taxi will be recognized, — says Morozov. There at least, no driver, which is the main breeding ground for infection, and clean it up or leave the sprayer in the cabin to decontaminate yourself — the task is quite feasible.
an Abrupt transition to a “new mobility” — for example, the “bicycalization” of mass — according to experts, expect also it is not necessary. “The trend in new bike paths — it’s a long story — said Morozov. The coronavirus was an additional stimulus, but the maturity of this idea is weak.”
Vladimir Sviridenkov draws attention to the fact that the statistics of accidents in recent weeks shows, for obvious reasons, reducing the number of accidents by 70% — but the number of deaths has not decreased compared to the same periods, but even increased. The reason is obvious: the traffic speed is higher, hence, the percentage of severe accidents increases. Perhaps, the expert believes, this knowledge will help to adjust the strategy of transport development: until now, politicians and administrators the comma-separated set a goal “to get rid of traffic jams and improve road safety”. Now it becomes obvious that these goals are different and other things being equal we must fight is not primarily against traffic, and safety.
Traffic may still facilitate — because of the greater spread of remote work, — says Vladimir Sviridenkov. — Before the start of the pandemic 20% of working places in Moscow was located outside the offices. In new York, the figure was about 35%. Moscow in any case, caught up with global capital on this indicator, but a pandemic, I think, will accelerate this process: 35% remote jobs can be achieved already for 4-5 years.
Areas — green light
— If before the world moved only in one direction: globalization, the financial center of the city, for example, was in one place, military in another, production in a third, now a reverse trend: the countries are separated, even the regions are trying to close from each other, — says the head of the Fund of the local government, the head of the municipal district Taganskaya Ilya Sviridov. — This all�� leads to the opposite process, i.e., localization. In all likelihood, in the future people will become more interested in what happens to them in the immediate vicinity.
Now, during the quarantine, the regional Internet community (that they in recent years are the main drivers of development of civil relations), some have subsided — because fewer people take to the streets, see less, less photographed, said he. However, these same social networks are used to promote regional small business.
Pandemic and the attendant quarantine — stress test for the modern metropolis. And no wonder to what is happening interested look urbanists — experts on the organization of urban space.
“the First well highlighted the epidemic history of inequality in the city, says an expert on urban development Peter Ivanov. — Infection are more exposed to those who have no possibility normally to isolate themselves who are forced for a livelihood to go to work and interact with people. The analysis of this problem is a conversation about the automation of many industries and services, and about social support and about the new principles of the organization of the city’s economy to minimize inequality.”
one of the possible trends of the near future may become a mixed-use development, i.e. combined residential and commercial property in the same house and the same block, says urbanist: “the Modernist scenario where there are separate residential area and separately, jobs, dysfunctional from the point of view of epidemiology. When both are in the same place, the picture looks much more balanced. However, there is the problem that Soviet and post-Soviet residential districts are insufficient, potentially non-residential areas”.
— Generally speaking, the epidemic in the world is not the first time and every time after the outbreak of the city developed and grew even stronger, says architect Ilya Zalivukhin. — Yes, the epidemic has a lot to teach, they have to be better. But the alternative can only be desolation and the flight of people to the caves — and we don’t want?..
the City will better withstand the epidemic, if they will develop the social (schools, hospitals, places of leisure), engineering-environmental (“green frame”, parks, water and Sewerage) and transport infrastructure. This can alleviate the problem: people touch each other and spread infection. You can organize the space of the city to reduce unnecessary contact to a minimum — for example, to make areas of the city more self-sufficient, with its malls, parks and other facilities. And with their jobs, of course.
Remote work is not a luxury, but a normal variant
the Thesis that the ideal job is one that can be run from any point of the globe, did not appear yesterday: many young people are looking for this format. Would be frisky a laptop, a stable Internet connection and a phone handy — and what’s the difference where to report and write releases? Some employers, too, have long understood the old wisdom: less people — more oxygen (and at the same time save electricity, water in toilets; sometimes the room will need to rent a much smaller size), but the majority still do not quite understand what kind of a beast — is. Until recently…
I have often encountered situations where the person need to be able to work remotely as if already feeling guilty: it seems that he asks for undeserved privilege that is arrogance and that the employer has the full right “to put him in his place.” Although in the modern world often there is no real need every day to come to the office, — has explained in conversation with the correspondent “MK” career consultant Anastasia Baranova. In April 2020, almost everything we tried remote work and learned a lot — for example that it is not a synonym for the freebies and not the lightweight version of the work, this format requires great self-discipline. Therefore, there is reason to hope that after the end of the pandemic, people will be able to negotiate remote work, regardless of what their reason for this: the need to look after a small child, work on multiple projects in parallel or a long walk. Employers used to infer KPI (schedules task execution and efficiency) and not on the fact of presence at the workplace.
In this case, as says the expert, will require a certain flexibility on the part of the employer to avoid conflicts within the team: employees whose presence is required in the office to a normal workflow, might view allowing remote work to those who are Autonomous, as unjust concessions. In this case, according to Baranova, the help can come from additional measures corporate support — for example, the discount passes to the fitness club or on English language courses for those who will be required to comply with the working schedule from 9 to 18 hours, travel expenses, mobile connection or power at work.
However, to gain the loyalty of the supervisor or customer in order to work remotely, it’s not so bad; much more serious battles often have to survive with their own families. Before the start of the pandemic, those who have been already moved to the so-called freelancing, discovered need a setth patience to explain to the household that in the phrase “I work from home” keyword is still “work” and not “houses”. And that means working remotely human should not be seen as a housewife whose responsibilities will include the full provision of life — from cooking to Hiking to the dry cleaners.
— Many of my clients are already talking about the Epiphany, saying, tried last month to work from home and realized that was wrong when I blamed the wife-freelancer uncooked food or unwashed floor, says psychologist Anastasia Alexandrova. — This is a really common household myth: the one who daily goes “in front”, it seems that working from home a lot of free time. This provokes conflicts in the family. Now, in the past month, almost every second were in the shoes of that “sitting home”. Many have realized that it requires much more self-discipline, especially for those who for many years used to switch the internal switch mode “home” mode “in the office”. Someone, on the contrary, recognized that to control himself — it’s not for him that is more comfortable to obey the rules. But someone will go to the new format.
One of the best examples, according to the psychologist, women who hire a nanny when you work from home. This practice is gaining popularity among those who are willing to go out earlier from maternity leave, but not ready to leave the house for 10 hours (for example, if you are still breastfeeding). And this is puzzling, including from close relatives: the babysitter when you’re home? Gentility!
— the same thing can be said about the coming service worker or any other hired worker who will do your homework “when the live lady of the house”. Unfortunately, in our mentality it is that curiosity — continues psychologist. Maybe the isolation will give us invaluable experience: the ability to understand that “work” is not a place where you’re going in the morning and just part of life.
The small business
Support for small and medium-sized business is already recognized as a priority at the Federal and city level: the entrepreneur promised to support with the payment of loans, delay in the payment of rent, tax breaks and many other nice bonuses… So there is reason to believe: favorite pizza place near home and Studio of belly dancing will not be closed, unless, of course, customers don’t turn away. However, there is another layer — not even small and smallest business, and here he was less fortunate of all.
what is usually being referred to when a person declares: “I’m leaving the office open for business”? Often something very small — for example, preparing cakes, sewing fashion fabric bags with AppleKazemi or t-shirts with funny slogans, conducting photo shoots and arranging flowers… Sometimes enthusiasts honestly are registered as individual entrepreneurs and pay taxes, sometimes work in black and sell your products and services via social networks like Instagram. Revenues are usually not so great — much more important for entrepreneurs to feel creative and independent.
However, after the end of the pandemic may be, photographers, soap makers will have to get back to the office.
most Often a “micro-business” have one thing in common: it produces goods and services, without which you can easily manage. Moreover, those products and services from which Muscovites will refuse in the first place in case of reduction of own incomes. Well, since incomes after the pandemic will be reduced many, most likely, the opportunity to support their own ruble talented pastry chef Kate will not be simple.
I worked in the clinic registry, but two years ago decided to quit it and engaged in the preparation of floral arrangements for weddings and other celebrations. I’m a florist-taught, but I love it! says 33-year-old Alexander. — Most managed to earn in the summer, when the peak wedding season, but in the rest of the time is something gained, at least 20 thousand a month. Well, now I have from the middle of March any order! While there are savings to be holding, but most likely, I’ll look for work again “in the presence”.
not only that, the self-isolation imposed a ban on holding events where they could need more bouquets, and the willingness of customers to pay for them decreased significantly. And this applies to many “nice frills.”
— I left PR to become a makeup artist, and almost 3 years everything was fine, — shares his story of 28-year-old Natasha. — Now work, of course, no, not just me. Stylist at the hair, who I work with, and photographer can sit and suck his paw. Usually the girls were willing to pay about 10-12 thousand for one well done photo shoot: about 3 thousand me and the stylist, another five — to photographer. Now almost all of our clients problems at work, reduction in wages, they will not spend so much money. I hope that will help me shooting for magazines, but so far, I don’t know.
Alas, it may happen that a good trend which has gained popularity in society in recent years — support local producers and proud independent masters of their craft, will leave, not having time to really begin, having broken about the economic crisis. Willingness to pay for t-shirt 1500 rubles instead of 500, just because it made a young independent designer, and not mass market is a sign of either very fat people or very full time. And it’s not about 2020.