the increasing level of unemployment is one of the most dangerous States of the economy. Explain why.
In April, the number of unemployed in Russia increased by 800 thousand people, to 4.8 million, Rosstat reported. The unemployment rate rose to its highest level in four years — to 5.8%.
On measures of support to unemployed compatriots will be allocated 35 billion roubles, from 1500 to 4500 rubles will increase the minimum unemployment benefits for three months will be extended benefits, lost eligibility for benefits after March 1, all individual entrepreneurs that ceased its activities after March 1, will receive a benefit 12130 rubles.
Unemployment in the economy always exists. It all depends on her level. According to the Ministry of economic development, the natural rate of unemployment, that is, when a person is looking for a new job after dismissal, or, for example, when a graduate looking for a first job, is 4,7−4,9%. Sometimes even structural unemployment. This is when people lose their jobs because they no longer need. For example, in the region closed to the mining of metals and metallurgists here temporarily do not need, and during the search of a new place, these professionals also form the natural rate of unemployment.
According to a member of the General Council of “Business Russia” Pavel Gagarin, in developed countries with stable economy the normal level of unemployment is considered to be from 3% to 7% of the total number of the economically active working population. “And in Russia, in a difficult economic situation, the country’s dual crisis crisis associated with the pandemic, and the crisis associated with the fall in energy prices, I believe the threshold of 4 — 4.5 percent, above which begin danger”, — stated the expert.
As stated in the basic forecast of the Boston Consulting Group, the unemployment rate in Russia may reach 6 — 7%. The adverse scenario assumes a rise in unemployment to 15%. About the same forecast gives the head of the accounts Chamber Alexey Kudrin: unemployment to 7-8%, and up to 10% in the worst case.
rising unemployment leads to destabilization of the labor market, the market of the employee turns into the employer market, that is, it can dictate terms to lay off, reduce wages, and so on, says Gagarin.
With rising unemployment and rising expenses of the state for the people. And this is a danger for the state budget. But government revenues from taxes fall.
“There is another danger that rising unemployment levels are above the threshold values is an indicator of the poor state of the economy. Even according to official statistics, in April we were missing 12% of GDP, 70% of companies affected by the pandemic. In principle, the increase in the unemployment rate is one of the dangerous States of the economy,” podderku��et Gagarin.
In turn Director of the Novgorod Fund for the development of the creative economy amusements are organized jury notes that hand in hand with increased unemployment, sweeping the decline in the purchasing power of the population. “No turnover, no profit, any many services. The severity of this aspect of the current crisis we will feel in the future when people run out of savings, pending on summer vacation, which for obvious reasons did not take place, and will come to an end one-time social payments”, — says the expert.
However, the amusements are organized and Yuri says about the positive aspects of the situation on the labour market. “The need to obtain state support has forced some citizens to officially register as unemployed. That is, the state showed thus a significant part of hidden unemployment and, as I hope many small business owners, dealt a blow to the “gray” sector of economy”, — the expert explains.
in addition, the redistribution in the labor market. “Those people who are three to five years ago went “to conquer Moscow” and settled there, lost a job, or just due desire to move to a more relaxed in terms of viral threats to the territory, returned home. Today they jostle for the labour market remaining in local regions, attracting customers to their Metropolitan experience. On the one hand, it can improve the quality of services, with another — compete local will also have somewhere “attach”,” — summarizes the expert.