On Tuesday, the Euro slipped below the magical limit of 1.10 Swiss francs. Although he has since risen again on Thursday and easily. But the Trend is pointing down. Martin Neff (58), chief economist of Raiffeisenbank, to Sunday view: “The parity. In 18 months, the Euro will cost one franc.”
This bombshell is likely to call for many of the year 2015 in memory. At that time, the Swiss national Bank (SNB) lifted the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs with a Bang. The Euro fell temporarily to below one Swiss franc.
“it was a steel bath for the export industry,” recalls Jean-Philippe Kohl, (53), Vice – Director of the industry Association Swissmem. “We lost then-13’000 jobs.” In the case of a renewed parity of the franc would be overvalued against the Euro, around 20 percent, he figures. “That would be for many companies a K. o.”
to cope with a Difficult
the tourism industry is in fear of the spectre. “We feel the exchange rate of the Euro,” says the Grisons, Director of Economics Marcus Caduff (45, CVP). “The number of overnight stays rise in our Hotels, and thus.” A course of one-to-one would be able to cope with the Canton to “the Swiss and the European visitors are the most important guests. The parity, these guests will fail.”
André Aschwanden (40), the media spokesperson for Switzerland tourism, it is important not to panic. “As long as it won’t be like 2015, we will try to remain calm.”
the key rate of The Swiss national Bank is currently at minus 0.75 percent. The SNB would be able to prevent a further appreciation of the Swiss franc, with a new interest rate reduction? Possibly also interventions in the financial market? “No,” says Economist Neff. The have not helped until now. “The national Bank is hanging on the drip of the European Central Bank. At the same time, the Swiss economy is very robust, which is why the Swiss franc as a safe haven is sought.” These values, in turn, the Swiss franc further.
debt, the ECB
is Adriel Jost (34) from the consulting firm Wellershoff & Partners, is skeptical: “Maybe a further reduction of the key rate is still in there.” With each reduction, but the risk is that the demand for Cash in Switzerland is increasing “and the hoarding begins to climb”.
Responsible for the plight of the common currency, the European Central Bank (ECB). “She has maneuvered itself with its expansionary monetary policy, even in a case,” says Rahim Taghizadegan (40), the Austrian economic philosopher and co-author of the bestseller “The zero interest-rate trap”.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB lowers interest rates and buys government bonds in the trillions of dollars. It allows for highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece, always more and always cheaper debt cost to make.
The ECB is flooding the markets with money to stimulate the economy. Out of fear of a recession, they are fixed on an inflation target of two per cent, and holding their course until this goal is reached.
fear of the Crash
Although the textbooks of monetary policy, an increase in the money supply Inflation will lead. “But this transmission mechanism does not work any more,” says Martin Neff. “Since 2008, it cuddles just the financial markets. In the real economy, the cheap money is never.”
assets continue to rise, the real estate prices shoot up in height and the stock market courses to hunt from record to record. The result is an extremely dangerous bubble. And yet, the ECB President, Mario Draghi (71) in September will reduce the policy rates and government bond purchases on a large scale make. Why?
“for fear Of the Crash,” says Rahim Taghizadegan. What aggravates the Whole thing, because: “the greater the fear, the bigger the Crash. Especially, if the fear slumbers unconsciously and by the drug of cheap money will be stunned.”
growth at the Pump
Not better in the United States and in China. Both grow, but to Pump. Next week the U.S. Central Bank chief Jerome Powell (66) will reduce the interest – what makes the System even more sensitive.
“It needs only a Trigger,” says Martin Neff. “Then the next Crash is here. A hard Brexit could be this Trigger.” This risk is increased with the election of Boris Johnson as the new British Prime solid.
For all the Swiss who travel now to the South, has All but one Good thing: The holiday money is likely to for a few more summer cocktails.