However, the main objective of the agreement to reduce production to balance supply and demand in the market, and the rising cost of oil, in a sense, is a necessary, but a by-product. If OPEC members+ achieved goals, quotes will inevitably rise. But after some time, to predict exactly very problematic. Not accidentally the Russian Ministry of energy, enough appreciating the restoration of consumption of oil and oil products in the world and expecting to establish a balance in the market this summer, very carefully make predictions about the price of “black gold”. Even after the may success of OPEC+ it is about 40 dollars per barrel by the end of the year, though experts say about 50 dollars, and some higher values. This is a rare case when the official estimates are more pessimistic independent forecasts.
“Before the conference, OPEC prices of oil rose in anticipation of news of further production cuts in July, and maybe August,” – says the analyst of commodity markets “Opening Broker” Oksana Lukicheva.
In her opinion, the market behaves classically: the growth was on expectations and the sale happened after the fact.
Expectations were justified is minimal. The extension of the deal, OPEC+ current parameters for August yet is not even discussed, and the additional reduction of oil production, a total of 1.2 million barrels a day, which took over Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, as it turned out, is only in June and no further extension.
the Growth in oil prices before the last meeting of the Ministerial Committee OPEC+ were clearly too high, do not meet the realities of the market. The glut of oil in the world, according to the Russian energy Ministry, was at the end of may of 7 million barrels per day, and if the market responded only to economic factors, not expectations and news occasions, it would be no price increases in may this year did not exist.
“the Price of oil increased by almost 90% in the first nine weeks, almost without significant correction” – analyst UK “alpha-the Capital” Artem Kopylov. From his point of view, oil prices should rise further by the end of the year, but at the moment, most likely, consolidation on the price of oil is near $ 40 per barrel. Restrain the growth of energy prices, overflowing storage, and depressed demand. In the last week the oil reserves in the world rose by 2.1 million barrels due to the unloading of the oil tankers from Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, there was profit-taking of investors after significant market growth. Oil demand is still weak, and air transportation and trucking are far from recovering.
Some pressure on the quotes had news from the United States. Crude oil inventories in the country over the past week grew by 5.85 million barrels. The number of active borovich plants was reduced to 199, but this factor almost ceased to pay attention to, given the huge stock of unfinished wells (about 8000 pieces) which will allow you to quickly increase production.
And finally, not the most iridescent mood contribute to the growing fears of a second wave epidemic of coronavirus in the fall of this year. Moreover, this is probably the only real threat to the oil market, able in a moment to deploy the recovery process in the opposite direction, offset by all the efforts of OPEC+.
