the Record growth of oil demand to 5.7 million barrels per day given the production cuts by OPEC conditions+ and the decrease of production in other countries is predicted for 2021, the International energy Agency (IEA). Such a sharp market recovery can not only give a stimulus to growth in oil prices, but also become a temptation for some countries to start to quickly increase production at the expense of the deal, OPEC+.

the Agency reduced the expected fall in oil demand in 2020 by half a million barrels per day, to 8.1 million IEA Experts believe that in 2021, the growth in oil demand will play a large part of the decline in consumption in 2020. At the same time increasing production in 2021 in the IEA estimated just 1.7 million barrels a day.

This forecast is associated with the expectation that the world will begin to emerge from quarantine, quickly restoring economic growth, says a senior analyst on oil and gas sector of the energy Centre of Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO Catherine Grushovenko. According to her, in case of shortage of supply in the market and OPEC+ and the producing countries outside the agreement will be able to increase production.

the IEA indicates that the market may provide producers the opportunity to increase production faster than is provided for by the terms of the transaction OPEC+. Therefore, the production in countries outside OPEC, could recover quicker than expected. In this case speech can go about losing part of the market participants , as it was at the end of 2019, when production decline OPEC+ used oil producers from the USA and other countries, increasing their exports. This was one of the main reasons of the disagreements of Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier this year that led to the collapse of the deal last OPEC+.

However, while, according to experts, the danger of such a scenario is small. As explained by the expert on the stock market “BCS” Igor Galaktionov, in 2021, the demand will be lower in 2019 by approximately 2.4 million barrels per day, while production of 5.5 million barrels per day. The shortage of 3.1 million barrels per day will help reduce the world’s oil reserves, which is a key objective of OPEC+.

market Conditions still remain quite challenging for oil producers, says the head of the research Department on fuel and energy complex and housing and communal services of the Analytical center under the government of the Russian Federation Alexander Kurdin. Accumulated in the year 2020 the excess inventory and will not be sold out, at least until 2022. When in the second half of 2021, the deficit will be a significant, increase the risk of enhanced recovery production in the United States, easing of the terms of the agreement, OPEC or even deviations from accurate of their performance.