a Sharp drop in oil prices will inevitably lead to a rise in price of passenger cars in Russia: experts in little doubt, despite the promise of “rebound” exchange rates. The only advantage it will not happen immediately.
Rewriting the price tags in Russian dealer centers will be displaced and will be associated with an increase in the dollar and the Euro. According to the President of the “Association of Russian automobile dealers” Oleg moseeva, it will happen soon in the middle or second half of the year.
“it is Clear that in the near future, the ruble is unlikely to return back to the corridor of $60-65 and in the area of EURO70 for the simple reason that oil is unlikely to return to the corridor to $50. Here, accordingly, manufacturers will have to still count the price tags. It is clear that they will not do this immediately, rather, in stages. Plus, they have in any case the time because of supply that is planned for the next three to six months, most likely, is hedged for currency risk, so they have time to do a gradual increase,” — quoted by TASS statement moseeva.
According to experts, the increase will mainly affect those cars that are imported to Russia from abroad. Localized brands also with high probability will rewrite the labels, but most likely less noticeable.
Interviewed by Avtovesti companies (Geely, Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen) have now taken a wait and not comment on possible price changes until stabiliziruemost exchange rates. In Nissan and Renault at the request of the review has not yet responded. The official representative of AVTOVAZ informed Autovista that the plant is considering the possibility of changing prices because of the ruble in the short term: the Russian manufacturer of currency depends on prices for raw materials and parts of some suppliers.
“AVTOVAZ closely monitoring the development of the macroeconomic situation — the decline in oil prices, fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate and the cost of the SyRA. We evaluate this situation as negative for the Russian automobile industry and AVTOVAZ in particular”, — stated in the message press service, writes “Kommersant”.
Beginning of a protracted crisis on the Russian automotive market in 2014 too, it was a similar scenario. With the June level of $113 per barrel by December 2014 oil fell to $57, and in January 2015 — is already up to $49. The ruble fell synchronously: if the summer of 2014, $1 was worth 35 rubles, already by the fall, the course began to change rapidly. In December 2014, the 1$ price increased to 60 rubles, in January-February, 2015 — before 67 to 69 rubles, and in a year came to 83 rubles per dollar. Naturally, it was quickly pulled car prices up, and sales went downhill.
However, the oil over time fluctuated in price, falling to $35 per barrel in early 2016, then taking it out to $60-80 per barrel in the last couple of years. That’s just the ruble during this time, not crepe, and the price is $1 and “floating” around the level of 60-70 rubles per dollar, because the car all of this time steadily go up.
it is Curious that ROAD on the background of current events ready to revise its forecast for sales of new cars in our country in a more pessimistic direction. Earlier it was reported that according to calculations of the Association of Russian car market in 2020, the year should fall by 8%.