Oil jazz, hard rock and Symphony

the Pre-visit to Moscow of the group of African energy Ministers from among graduates of Soviet and Russian universities is being worked on this fall under the umbrella of “Global energy”. But not far off host 2022 in Russia, in St. Petersburg, the jubilee Congress of the World energy Council (WEC) is a unique organization with its headquarters in London, which for many years before the creation of the anti-Hitler coalition established all the same the Soviet Union, the United States and the United Kingdom. How consistent the needs of the developing world and ideas about energy future without coal, oil and gas, which are discussed in Europe?

“Vesti on Saturday” I talked to the head of WEC Englishwoman Angela Wilkinson on the economic development scenarios, which are figuratively called “Modern jazz”, “unfinished Symphony” and “Hard rock”.

Angela, no matter what subject you choose for the 25th world energy Congress in St. Petersburg, you have three own script: “Modern jazz”, “Unfinished Symphony”… And what is the third?

– “Hard rock”.

Why?

– Because when we communicate with people around the world, we get different points of view on the current situation and future prospects. We try to maintain the possibility for joint action. We can try to get everyone to think alike or can use this diversity as a strength. We are looking for different signals of change and combine them. We can observe three different scenarios for the future unfolding at the same time. And we gave names to these scenarios: “Unfinished Symphony”, “Hard rock” and “Modern jazz”.

– This option is the most trendy.

Is the most popular option among people who think that the future lies in technology and financial innovation.

– A man is in the centre alwaysO.

– A system, the center of which is man will evolve around these technologies.

– is It real?

– Discussion, which we spent in Africa was such that in this scenario, there are many strengths. People like it in many ways. The question is, are we really going to accept this level of public control and lack of privacy, because we are talking about data. This world is transparent. People will know your habits. They will know how many people you have in the house and not just how much energy you consume.

so, the scenario which is most real, is the “Unfinished Symphony”?

– Yes, this is the scenario that is most popular among people who believe that the future is not only coordination among States, but increasingly in cooperation between them, let’s call them sub-national units. In this world there is cooperation that we can monitor not only locally but also at national and regional levels. Thus, the “Unfinished Symphony” has a high potential of cooperation, but it is slower, as it happens, the introduction of innovation.

– “Hard rock” sounds old-fashioned, but for many people it is a very modern genre of music. But I would say this is the world in which we lived at the end of the last Millennium. A world where countries competed and fought for control of markets. Do you not think that States would prefer the scenario of “Hard rock”?

– last year at the 24th world energy Congress in Abu Dhabi we asked people which scenario, in their view, is the most obvious. We asked this same question in 2016. Then people said that the future of the “Unfinished Symphony”. In 2019, they said they see more opportunities for “Hard rock” scenario. We asked ourselves: why are we seeing such a picture? There are two features characteristic of “Hard rock” scenario. The first is that security in a decentralized world can be realized at a more local scale. And the logic of some national relationships are not so clear as could be. So we can perceive the “Hard rock” as a scenario in which there is geopolitical fragmentation, but we can also regard it from the point of view of increasing the capacity to provide local security.

– And now a difficult question, especially for developing countries. When we ask the Europeans whether you want to live in a clean London, clean Moscow, they say Yes. But not everyone agrees with the possible increase in the electricity tariff 3 times only because of the use of modern technology. Nevertheless, people are inclined to use these technologies. When you say the same thing to people from rural areas in Africa, Latin America and even in Eurasia, how you sell the idea of using a larger amount of solar and wind energy, compared to traditional, which is cheaper, I think.

– There are two aspects. I would like to share them. One of them concerns the question what constitutes renewable energy. This “green” technology or cheap energy? The answer will be both. So what shapes consumer behavior? People buy more cheap energy? The possibility of cheaper access to it? Or they buy the possibility of energy use in rural Africa? Present here are both aspects. While in London or Saint Petersburg, you already have a developed energy system, and you can think of a more convenient and “green” solutions. As we’d been decarbonizing system, if it was our choice? Greenhouse gas emissions in Africa is 2% of the global total. It requires more energy. And the question here is that if you want more energy, what abouton needs to be green or cheap? Answer is what is required and “green” and cheap energy, because you can create a rural energy community that will be able to service your own equipment. However, this approach has its limitations from the point of view of applications. If you want to use a industrial solution to use environmentally friendly cooking methods, clean technologies in lighting and in transportation, you need a different type of power system.

– Exactly. I spoke with the President of the African Union, of consumption, Mr. Alloy, who said that Africa wants to follow the path
industrial development and the optimal options are hydropower and natural gas, which, in turn, is not very popular with Europeans with their commitment to decarbonization. How you combine these things?

In my opinion, in the world at the same time formed three concepts. One of which is decarbonisation, it comes from a particular region of the world. There is also the concept of recycling, the circular elimination of carbon, which appeared in other regions of the world. And in Africa, a concept of transition to clean and readily available energy. I think that the concept of decarbonization can be viewed broadly or narrowly. If we consider the issue from a broad point of view, then we mean zero carbon emissions, nuclear energy, gas, technology of capture and storage of carbon. Or it could be due to the ideologically when the decarbonization we understand only zero emissions and only renewable energy. So even if you call this script decarbonization, it contains shades of blue and green.

– we “Global energy” in the next two weeks held a series of lectures. We were visited by the Minister of energy of Russia. His position is obvious. Also came to us UN representatives from UNIDO and UNEP — they prefer to watchü at the situation from a slightly different angle. In addition, our guest was Leonid Grigoriev, a Russian Professor, who is quite popular in these circles. He says that, in fact, the amount of CO2 emissions reduced in Europe, equal to the amount of CO2 emissions produced outside Europe, at the time of production of goods which then are imported into the EU. This hypocrisy or not?

– I think that even Europe recognizes that you cannot be the strategy which would be clear at the local level and dirty on the global. And the challenge for Europe lies not only in how they decarbonizers how to use the industrial paradigm. And they are trying to solve both of these problems simultaneously. Thus, we can observe a certain hydrocarbon economy in the middle East. At the same time, we see that an economy based on the growing scale of production, appeared in Europe. Both regions have energy needs, and they will be based. But I think it’s too trivial to say that it is hypocrisy. I think that Europe is not just promoting decarbonization.

No, that’s what he said.

– I Think Europe is trying to think of decarbonization. Let’s call it the new industrialization at the same time.

– Imagine that comes 2022. We are all in Saint-Petersburg in the composition of the different groups. Not geographically, but in the image of thought: “greener,” cleaner, cheaper, whatever. As you gather all these people together?

– So this is the main purpose of the international energy community that we recognize: there are many regional points of view. In power systems there is regional diversity, so still need to come together to speak with one voice. The key to this is not consensus, and the creation of a suitable platform for cooperation. This is exactly what we do. We are not looking for full consensus because it cannot to be in a world that has different needs and plans.

And democracy, and international relations.

– energy And democracy, and diplomacy, we hope.

– I’ll See you in April in Moscow?

– See you.