the World oil market under the influence of the pandemic comes back in the middle 1990-ies. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the evaluation of energy consumption, the volume of which is reduced day by day. According to OPEC forecasts, in 2020 we are waiting for the strongest in the history of the demand for “black gold”. In April alone, the export of energy resources will collapse by 20 million barrels a day. In this case, the volume of oil production, which with great difficulty agreed OPEC countries and their allies (15 million “barrels” per day), would not be enough.
the Federal budget of Russia is formed mainly due to income from hydrocarbon exports, will feel the lack of 3-4 trillion roubles that will lead to the deficit of the Treasury 10% of GDP, and inflation will grow by 4-5%.
against the background of the pandemic coronavirus OPEC expects the largest in the history of the fall in oil demand in the world. As stated in the April report, the forecast for global oil demand in 2020 has been revised downward to 6.9 million barrels per day. The last time such a historic decline to the level of 6.8 million “barrels” a day was recorded in 1998 during the global financial crisis.
Similar calculations earlier showed, and the International energy Agency established a filing with the US after the oil crisis in 1973-1974 years. It in its April report projected annual oil demand of 90 million barrels per day, more than 9 million barrels lower than last year. “This would undermine nearly a decade of growth”, — the report says the IEA.
experts believe that such a perspective implying that the Russian budget is formed mainly on the basis of revenues from energy exports, will have to seriously cut back. The government promised to support the industry affected by the coronavirus, will spend up to 2 trillion roubles. This amount corresponds to 1.8% of GDP. In turn, in developed countries, to combat the coronavirus, to support business and the public authorities plan to spend from 4 to 10% of GDP.
“From the national welfare Fund (NWF), the government plans to allocate to support the economy a little more than 15% of available reserve funds. Based on these costs and projected by the Ministry of Finance budget revenue shortfalls at 1 trln rubles, it can be assumed that by the end of 2020 is a surplus of 0.8% of GDP, which was planned, we will get the budget deficit to 1% of GDP” — says Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
“While maintaining low oil prices (at $30) budget deficit in 2020 will be 0.9-1.5% of GDP instead of the previously projected surplus of 0.8%, agrees head of research Department Amarkets Artem Deev. — In monetary terms, it will amount to 3-4 trillion. As��have, in addition to oil prices and production cuts, a negative factor for the economy are also quarantine and stop the production, trade and services for the year expect a budget deficit of about 10% of GDP”.
he predicted that before the end of 2020, oil prices will not rise above $30-35 per barrel. In this case Russia will have to further cut production (for a recent OPEC agreements+, it reduced by 23%). From the fall in oil prices in March, the budget fell short of 22 billion rubles. In April, the amount of uncollected revenues of the oil and gas sector will exceed 55 billion rubles. The drop in oil prices has added reduction in the cost of gas compared with last year, the cost of “blue fuel” in Europe has fallen by half, and the income of “Gazprom” in I quarter of 2020 has dropped by more than 50%.
experts believe that in 2021-2022 years, the budget is likely to be drawn up, based on the average of quotations of oil at $30 per barrel or even below. “By the end of 2020 Russian GDP will fall by 8-9% as it was in 2009, while industrial production will decrease by 9-11%. Inflation could rise to 4-5%”, — believes Milchakova.
“the forecast international consulting company McKinsey, Russia’s GDP in 2020 will be reduced by more than 10%. This fall will exceed the default of 1998 (-5,3%) and 2008-2009 (-7,8%). Therefore, the levels of GDP in 2019, Russia will be back before 2023”- said main analyst of “Broker” mark real.