This article is over two days old and may contain outdated advice from the authorities regarding the koronasmitten.

Keep yourself updated in The overview, or through the FHIs website.

CORRECTION: IN an earlier version of this case, wrote NRK that 500.000 people could have been infected about three weeks, if you had not introduced measures. This is incorrect. The correct is that the FHI estimates that 101.000 people could become infected in such a scenario.

It is recorded 2566 infected by koronaviruset in Norway, show new figures from FHI.

Of these, 196 reported infected in the past day. 12 people are reported dead of the virus until now. The average age of the dead is 87 year.

Mathematical model

FHI has made a mathematical model to predict how the virus spreads. By execution of the models shows the smitteraten (R) at the start of the epidemic was 2.4, a number they characterize as relatively high, but still lower than China had. This is therefore the number of how many new each of the infected transmits the virus to.

They note that they do not know the R’s are right now, but the model indicates that the measures that were introduced 12. march has had an effect. The numbers suggest that smittetallet can be down to 1.3, thanks to that, there has been less contact between people.

FHI noting, however, that this is the calculations from a model, and therefore not the real numbers. The goal is all the time to get R as low as possible.

– We do not know when the top comes, or how sharp it is. But the model will help us to get a better knowledge basis in the future, said Line Violence from FHI at press conference in the afternoon.

Different scenarios

In a report from FHI goes back that if smitteraten has been on 2,3 since the measures were introduced 12. march, so will the number of infected be on 42.000 4. april and 101.000 11. april. It is based on that there is zero effect of the measures.

With a smitterate of 1.3, which implies that the measures have had a good effect, so say your calculations that there will be 6000 infected 4. april and 7,500 infected 11. april.

If the measures have very good effect, so that R is of 0.9, the figure will be 2500 infected pr. 28. march and 2200 infected 4. april, show your calculations from the model.

Read the full report here: https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/covid-19-epidemien-risiko-prognose-og-respons-i-norge-etter-uke-12.–24.mars-2020.pdf

prime Minister Erna Solberg (H) on today’s press conference.

Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB scanpix

prime Minister Erna Solberg (H) says in the afternoon that all measures are being taken to over easter.

– It is not possible to say how quickly the infection spreads. It will yet take some days before we see whether the measures we took worked. The measures will be continued to the 13. april, said the prime minister, among other things, the daily press conference today.

Check the Radio smittesimulator: How does the national koronadugnaden

– Follow the rules

Solberg said the goal is to get down in a smitterate on 1R, and she notified a new assessment in the easter week. She encourages the urge all of you to follow the rules the government has introduced.

health minister Bent Tall (H) made it clear that smittetallene shows that the situation is stable, and that we can take it as an encouragement on the way.

The next few weeks will give us more knowledge about how it will work, he said.

on High, asking people to keep at least two meters distance indoors, and not be more than five persons living together in a group outdoors. In the public rooms of precipitation, the distance to be at least a metre distance to others, he added.

In the statistics to FHI in the day it goes up that snittalder of those infected is 47,1 years. 46 per cent are women and 54 per cent are men. 1279 people are infected in Norway, the 996 is infected abroad, and for the 291 is smittestedet unknown.

Of those who are infected in Norway has 643 been a close contact of a known infected case, while the 597 has unknown smittebakgrunn.

70.608 people was at. 12 in the day tested for koronavirus here in the country.

– the Goal is to crack down on koronaepidemien as far as we can

the Aim of the new assessment is that each person infects less than one new person on average. When will virussmitten over time go back.

To drop up on the measures now, will involve a certain overload of the health care system. We must protect the b vaccination programs, ” says Norwegian institute of public health.

– the Goal is to crack down on koronaepidemien as far as we can.

Furthermore, they will win time to:

Improve the treatment and increase the capacity in the health service Increase the testkapasiteten and get better tracking systems Obtain knowledge and experience from other countries to Develop vaccines and new treatment Use time on patients with other diseases

Read also: Koronatiltakene go to over easter

the Development of risk assessment

Norwegian institute of public health has constantly changed on the risk assessment, from the infection came to Norway and to the present day.

Norway got its first case of koronasmitte Wednesday 26. February. In the risk assessment at that time, the estimated FHI that it would be 100 infected before easter. At the end of February planned the ministry of Health that up to 25 per cent could be infected.

In the Folkehelseinstituttets risk assessment 12. in march, they asked the health service to plan for that 733.000 persons could be sick, that 22.000 of them had to have hospital treatment, and that 5500 of them would need intensive care.

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