In the second half of 2020 in the housing sector will undergo serious changes. If consumers thought that the July indexation of tariffs — the worst thing that could happen to them in the utilities sector this year, then they were wrong. To tenants loomed a much more terrifying prospect: the installation of “smart” energy meters, of course, at their expense, and the lifting of the moratorium on the accrual of penalties for non-payment of “communal”. By the end of the year will return position on which it will be possible to disconnect the debtors ‘ services and to charge money, which most citizens do not because of falling revenues. In the future we will see the following: resursnyi to be forced to cut off water supplies from non-payers, no good will not result.
“MK” brought together those innovations that are waiting for the population in housing and communal sphere to the end of the current year, and with the help of experts analyzed them.
Pandemic laid in tariffs
In July, the housing prices are still indexed, despite the fact that money from the population, to put it mildly, no more. It’s not surprising: one of the few areas where the government’s plans are strictly adhered to, regardless of circumstance, is the rising cost of utilities. It is possible to adjust because of the coronavirus, for example, the construction program or transfer in 6 years implementation of the national projects, but the increase in the price of necessary resources for consumers from July 1, was on schedule. Although a number of deputies and officials were required to renounce such a step, and a number of departments — for example, the Federal Antimonopoly service opposed. But quietly raised fares by 4% on average in the country and not a cent less as it was pre-planned. Never mind that overall inflation for June was 3.2% year-on-year, and for the first half was 2.8%, according to Rosstat. The new rates are “far-sighted” are working proactively and in the future. By the way, they not only exceed the inflation rate by 40%. Their very increase is largely shapes the increased rising prices.
Natalia Chernysheva, Director of “national control”:
“the Increase in tariffs from July 2020 instead of a moratorium, which all hoped to the last, even more will hit the pockets of citizens and does not contribute to the collectability. Tariffs increased on average by 4%, and revenues could fall by 15-20%. Thus, the increase in tariffs, which insisted that the supplier and the company will not cover the decrease in total payments, the situation will only worsen. Especially frustrating to notice in the payment of the return of previously suspended contributions for the repair in some regions. It also forced many residents to defer payments until better times, given the lack of Sanktsy for delay”.
Alex Krichevsky, expert of the Academy of management Finance and investment:
“the Situation with utility payments will remain very tense. The lack of sources of income of people over several months could not affect fiscal discipline and the problem of workers is that in the list of priority of payments, they are not the first, and only after the debts of various credit institutions — banks, MFIs. With indexation of tariffs will grow proportionally and amount of debt. Collection of payments for the pandemic have declined by a quarter, and in some regions and on 35-40%, so total debt to half a trillion rubles gained by individuals and legal entities will only grow and may reach two trillion by the end of the year, especially after the lifting of the moratorium on the fines and the end of vacation credit. The logical decision was to cancel the July indexation of tariffs and allocate it between the following price increases, but this was not done”.
Smart meters will Rob consumers
From 1 July resource providing company needs to establish consumers “smart” meters at their own expense (previously, it was made at the expense of the consumer). Replaced outdated equipment that allow for differences in consumption, is the oldest meters in which it is impossible to foresee the rate of “day-night” or other tariffs. Organization your costs for installation will be included in the electricity tariff. The price for one unit can reach up to 10 thousand rubles.
Natalia Chernysheva, Director of “national control”:
“the Transition to smart meters with the separation of tariffs for day and night should ultimately result in cost savings for those consumers who earlier were single-rate meter. Even given the fact that the cost of replacement of meters and their maintenance will be included in the rate, its increase should be offset by reduced costs if the resource is used at night. If, for example, people will postpone the inclusion of washing machines and dishwashers on time after sunset, the savings on electricity bills could be around 15%. However, it is unclear how replacement of water meters with “intelligent” can help those who already have installed multi-tariff meters and learned to use them properly. Perhaps, this change will result only in increase in tariff. But I hope that in any case it will not increase more than 0.5%”.
Eugene Bleh, the Deputy Director of housing management the Institute of industrial management of Ranepa:
“the Transition to smart meters should not affect the cost of electricity. Revenue from smart meter the suppliers, and they should install them for its�� account. To pass these costs on to consumers is unacceptable. Even with high debt disable the flow of resources to the population, no one will, ahead of the winter.”
Alexander Gurilev, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the consulting company Innovatika:
“of Course, all the devices installed in a building are installed at the expense of consumers. Will this installation require payment immediately or in installments — depending on the conditions offered by the management company or the supplier and the organization. Recommendation to residents to look carefully at those proposals that are received, because the usual trust management companies and resource supplying organizations can be an opportunity for some companies to inflate the cost of instrument installation and annual maintenance”.
disable Resources for debt
With the Russians want to start to collect debts for utility services since September 2020. The proposal was made by the head of the Duma energy Committee Pavel Zavalny. So, instead of January 2021, the moratorium on the accrual of penalties for non-payment of services can already cancel the fall. The ban on collection of debts entered in April, the citizens have managed to accumulate significant amounts. If the initiative of the Deputy of support, resursnyi will be able to disconnect the defaulters, for example, hot water.
Natalia Chernysheva, Director of “national control”:
“the Moratorium on the fines, penalties and disconnection for nonpayment prior to 1 January 2021 was the right measure, but now, with the higher tariffs and the return of contributions for the repair, it can lead to further delay payment and increase the cash gap in payments. Now there is no uniform method of counting debt for housing, so the numbers may vary, but it can be assumed that collection rates will fall in the second half at about 20% in comparison with the period of isolation. People who have lost their jobs or a significant portion of the income will not be able to quickly recover their former positions. According to some projections, the number of unemployed will increase from the current 2.4 million people to 5 million by the end of 2020, and according to the pessimistic forecasts and up to 7 million people. Now citizens can be recommended as soon as possible to apply for subsidies for housing and communal services due to falling incomes, especially as the subsidy does not depend on the amount of existing debt. And if you do not apply for grants and hope for a quick improvement is possible by January 2021 to be a very unpleasant situation with a huge amount of debt for 8-9 months.”
Gloomy predictions
Experts believe that the situation with falling incomes and unemployment will only increase the debt by tens of billions of rubles. On average �� year-end revenues may decrease by about 40-50%, and it is very important would be assistance from the state for resursnogo to compensate for the loss of their received payments and the massive subsidies for citizens, which would help to increase collection of utility bills. For example, if you set a substantial subsidy of 50% for those who have no debt, it would encourage earlier payment of accounts for utilities. Otherwise, due to falling incomes and unemployment, the debt will only grow.
Marc Goikhman, principal analyst at TeleTrade:
“the Real incomes of the population, taking into account inflation, reduced by 6% in the 2nd quarter, before the increase of utility tariffs, according to the official forecast of Ministry of economic development. Overall, in 2020, the irony of digits expected to reduce real disposable income by 3.8% — almost the same, how much more expensive “communal”. HSE predicts a fall in the real income of the people of 8.2–12.1% this year. Rates are rising — incomes are falling, which will lead to the escalation of growth of non-payments of the population for housing and communal services. At the end of the “dependenices” the first quarter of 2020 the debt was 1.03 trillion rubles, according to the Ministry of construction. This is 1.8 times greater than the level of debt at the end of the 1st quarter of last year, amounting 564,5 billion. Indicators for the second quarter yet. However, we can safely assume that she has grown very much. First, because of the sharp decline in revenues. Secondly, due to the absolutely necessary current moratorium on penalties and interest for nonpayment. In a time when many families acute problem of simple survival, the ability to pay for utility services without disabling them makes do much to reorient people’s money on the primary — food, medicine, household goods. But this situation is temporary, effective until January 1, 2021, when it will be terminated the ban on charging interest. But debt is only accumulated due to specified circumstances. With the growth of tariffs it is possible to assume an increase in debt to 600-700 billion rubles for 9 months, that is up to 1.6–1.7 trillion rubles by the end of this year. Amount completely unaffordable to pay. The more substantial growth in incomes since the new year is not expected. The situation with debt may be breath-taking. If there is no introduction of any of the instalments, legal measures could lead to mass bankruptcies of natural persons, loss of property, a further sharp deterioration in the material situation of the people.”
