there Are now 36.508, 37.179, or 39.355 Corona-Infected in Germany? Whether you may believe the Figures of the Robert-Koch Institute, the German länder or of the Johns Hopkins University – that’s right, no one is. Virologists expect a extremely high number of unreported cases, a confirmed case, ten more undiscovered could come. (Stand: 26. To arrange March, 14 o’clock)
the figures of chaos that currently reigns in Germany, has Katharina Schüller for representative Tests. Instead of checking only to people with symptoms, you should test daily for a certain number of randomly selected people. To do this, they launched a Petition. Katharina Schueller
Katharina Schüller Stat is managing Director and founder of the company “up”. The statistician developed a risk-modeling Software for the Federal Institute for risk assessment (BfR), and worked a few years ago, Kary Mullis, received the discovery of the PCR (the biochemical basis of the Tests) the Nobel prize. Together with other experts published monthly in the “same UN statistics, of the month” for the classification-to-date statistics.
the Cluster, to understand the Virus
There are voices that speak out against representative Tests. One of the allegations: rates of infection were in clusters. The consternation was from a land line to land in very different ways, so that no clear statements about the actual Situation could make.
Schüller thinks nothing of these Statements. You don’t see a Chance in the different spread of the Virus: “the infection rates run in clusters, reduces the soundness of representative Tests,” said the statistician, “the opposite is the case. A great Chance of representative samples it is just to identify the Cluster. And that helps us to understand the Virus better.“
Targeted select groups
“It would take samples of larger sizes, in order to determine whether there are regional differences,” explains the statistician. Then it is possible to identify further features, with which about the affectedness of a specific Region correlated. Local Cluster presented no obstacle.
In statistics there are methods to work with clusters. “The density of a population, the Age structure and health infrastructure of throw.” For example, ambulatory care services could play a role in the transmission of infection, and between many people and herbewegten for a severe course of Covid-19 are particularly vulnerable.
“We could find indicators of why the district is more affected,” explains Schueller. So you can understand better why, in countries such as Italy particularly many Infected and severe gradients. At the present time there are according to the Johns Hopkins University 74.386 Infected, also 7.503 Dead. (Stand: 26. March 14 PM)
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See where crisis areas and high points are
in Addition, conclusions on the “Vulnerability of the population with the cluster identification”, draw, about, how many people could be affected. “We could see where really crisis areas and high points of the infections are located. Therefore, my suggestion is to test, over a longer period of time – in the best every day,“ says Schüller. In order to cover also the timing of the infections in the statistics.
The development of the Tests, especially rapid tests in progress. The technology group Bosch is developing according to its own information of a Coronavirus rapid test. It is the manufacturer according to a fully automatic procedure, which is to demonstrate the genetic material of the Virus – in less than two and a half hours. The Test should be in April in Germany and then in other countries. Such Tests could in the future be in the case of representative samples is applied.
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RKI read: “Representative samples of in-planning”
the Robert Koch Institute for representative Tests. The samples are already in the planning stage, said Mr Lothar Wieler on Wednesday. These Tests were, however, also provided an anti-body detection. Because then, it can be determined who had the Virus already. Currently, such Tests are not available.
scientists and doctors, President of speak up for sample tests from
scientists at the Kiel Institute for the world economy rates to representative Tests. Doctors President Klaus Reinhardt was not averse to the proposal. In an Interview with Gabor Steingart, he said: “I consider that this would be a very smart action, in order to gain a complete picture of the extent of the pandemic.”
He stressed that the rapid tests may have error rates. Nevertheless, it was a wise idea to be able to use projections, a better appraisal of the situation.
Ernst Fehr of the University of Zurich is also for representative Tests. The only way one could learn more about the Virus, explained the behavioral economist to the “Neue zürcher Zeitung”. “The most important Basis for political decisions, is the number of the nine infectious,” says Fehr, “and this is a very imperfect basis for Decision-making”.
The policy is currently in a Situation in which you don’t know much, what should you know to make the right trade-offs. “Until now, it has neglected to collect a random sample,” explained the behavioral economist.
The Swiss do it: the Public presentation of all the data
A different approach to data collection, Switzerland followed. It is also strongly affected by the outbreak of the Coronavirus, according to the Johns Hopkins University have been infected there 11.027 people, 154 people have died from it already. (Stand: 26. March 14 PM)
As in Germany, are overloaded by the Swiss authorities, it is difficult to document the epidemic properly. Sometimes you have weighed the paper stack of the messages, there was no time to count them, according to the Swiss magazine “Republic”. Instead of using the private message system the staff of the health office had cases in many cases only through the press or about the Online encyclopedia Wikipedia from death or healed patients experience.
create transparency, to provide uncertainty to reduce
nevertheless, in Order to the best possible degree of transparency, authorities in pursuing an approach that could also work in Germany: The Ministry of health published the daily data of all new cases. Also age, gender and place of residence (Canton), the concerned will be published anonymously – readable for everyone.
“I think This is a great action,” says Schueller, “the data should be any available.” Especially good is it that the Numbers would be made machine-readable, so experts could easily work with the data. “Individuals tested, including Infected and Non-Infected, as well, how many people are in quarantine, all of them could help the actual dissemination of the Virus to better estimate.”
A single release of the Figures could be reduced also, the large uncertainty in the population. Because of different reporting numbers from the Robert-Koch-Institute, the Federal States and the John Hopkins University provide many of the confusion.
“If it is published, however, additional information with the data that creates the clarity,” says Schüller. So you could explain, for example, that the reporting offices of the länder are severely overloaded, data and case numbers remained, and the Figures are therefore not quite the reality did not correspond.
That Numbers will rise or fall, does not mean that it is also the infections do
“If the Numbers rise or fall, and that it is also the infections do,” stresses the statistician, “it just means that more or less Numbers, and were published reported. And that must be people are aware of.“
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