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By the end of 2020 the amount of new housing in Russia as a whole may be 40 million sq m — this is the lowest figure over the last decade, according to a forecast by the National rating Agency (NRA). Some regional developers including the pandemic is already facing deadlines for nearly half of its facilities, and the Federal government — to think about adjusting the targets of the national project “Housing and the urban environment”.By the end of 2020 in Russia on average can be entered about 40 million square meters of housing, which is 7% lower than in 2019. Such a reduction was not observed after the crisis of 2008. Such forecast contains in research of “Residential property in year COVID-19”, prepared by the NRA for the “Kommersant”.The fact that in December the developers will be to calculate the losses, it became apparent July 17: Rosstat has published statistics according to which in the first half of 2020, the volume of commissioned housing in the country decreased by 11.4%, to 26.7 million sq. m. These figures forced the officials to change optimism with caution. For 20 July, the Deputy head of the Ministry Nikita Stasyshyn said that you have to adjust the target of the national project on housing: instead of the planned annual input of housing 120 million sq m by 2024, 100 million sq. m. for example, by the beginning of July, Stavropol GK JUSSI with the postponement of rent 52% of housing under construction, or 503 thousand square meters, in St. Petersburg “Lider Grupp” — 43% or 256 thousand sq m, Moscow GK “Inteko” — almost 39%, or 201 thousand sq. m. ERZ indicated that “Inteko” has been delayed due to commissioning in 2017-2018. “This year, no transfers were not”,— assured after the publication in the company. The same situation on objects GK “black pearl” and “Leader groups”. Meanwhile, the limitations associated with COVID-19, the whole country will lead to the postponement of the introduction of on average two to three months, do not rule out in the NRA. Research from the Agency shows that the strongest impact of the pandemic caused the primary housing market of Moscow region. In April-may this year in the field of housing construction decreased by 31% compared to the same period of 2019. “According to the absolute value of losses in the housing the Moscow region is the leader among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation”,— noted in the study NRA. This is primarily attributable to reduced inflow of new workers to the region, the large size of the properties within the ring road and a General decline in the purchasing power of the population, especially in the segment of the middle class. According to Rosstat, real disposable income in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 8%.”A direct connection between the decrease in volumes of housing construction in the suburbs and the current economic situation,”— said managing partner of “Metrium” Maria Litinetskaya. According to her, the region loses those buildings, the construction of which is two or three years was postponed. The pandemic has exacerbated the outbreak during the crisis of 2014 the flow of demand from the suburbs to Moscow, adds the commercial Director of the group “homeland” Ksenia Yuryeva. As a result, she said, developers have shifted to the capital market and the number of projects has decreased.At the same time in Moscow, where, as in the suburbs, more than a month was frozen construction in April-may delivery decreased by 4%. The capital at the expense of “the confident performance of the first quarter,” noted in the NRA, will be able by the end of 2020 to achieve growth of housing 2%. But in Moscow it is planned another trend: due to favorable mortgage 6.5%, the increased demand for housing in new buildings, which, according to NRA projections, may lead to price increase of 10% compared to the year 2019. Ksenia Yuryeva predicts price growth in the Moscow new buildings before the end of this year, at least 20%. Agrees and Maria Litinetskaya: “since the beginning of the year prices rose by about 6-7%, and by December there are all preconditions to achieve the growth of 20%”.The growth of prices in Moscow can spur the decline in new projects due to low mortgage rates, the Director for development GK “A101” Dmitry Colors. In April, he says, in the capital market the volume of offers in new buildings by 60% year-on-year, and in may, the gap has narrowed to 50%. As a result, by the end of the year significant reduction in the total amount of the proposal.Khalil Amine