the Crisis in the oil market may persist until 2025. This forecast was made by analysts of the rating Agency of the NKR in the review “the oil Market is at a crossroads,” writes owned by Grigory Berezkin the RBC.
Experts believe that in the absence of new agreements to limit production of OPEC oil+ possible collapse of prices or price wars. Analysts have identified four possible scenarios of development of events.
According to the first, the most likely scenario is that oil producing countries will not be able to reach a new agreement, and the price of oil will be set by market mechanisms. Then, the average cost of raw materials would be 30 to 40 dollars per barrel. In this case, the revenue of Russia from the sale of black gold will be reduced by 44-50 percent over the previous year.
if the transaction is OPEC+ will be extended, the demand for oil will grow, but it will satisfy countries that have not joined the agreement. The average level of prices will be from 45 to 50 dollars. The revenue of Russia will be reduced by a quarter compared to last year.
the Third scenario assumes that OPEC+ will expand the agreement to sign United States, Canada and other oil producing countries, which earlier in the transaction not included. Such a development is unlikely, because, the US authorities have no ability to limit the extraction of private companies. However, the consolidation of oil assets and the transition of control to the Federal government is not possible in 2020-2021 years, analysts say. This is the most advantageous for Russia scenario, the average level of oil prices will be from 50 to $ 55.
the third scenario is the most unfavorable for Russia suggests the USA’s refusal from participation in the agreement and subsidizing Americans own oil producers. The average oil price in that case is 25 to 30 dollars, while the U.S. market it will cost from 50 to $ 55. However, it would allow States to expand activities abroad.
Previously, analysts estimated losses of the Russian budget from cheap oil. According to experts, in 2020 they may exceed $ 50 billion.
oil Prices in 2020 have fallen sharply amid slowing business activity worldwide due to pandemic coronavirus. No less serious blow to the primary sector was the entry of Russia and Saudi Arabia from the transaction OPEC+ and the ensuing price war. As a result, in April the price of raw materials has dropped to negative values. In may came into force a new deal on OPEC+, and commodity prices began to recover. However, oil is still more than 40 percent cheaper than in January 2020. As of may 26, the reference mixture Brent on London exchange ICE above $ 35 per barrel.
