the Fair value of the ruble in the price of oil 40 dollars for barrel is 72 rubles per dollar and 67 rubles to the dollar when the price of oil $ 50 per barrel, says Orlova. Thus, the current range of the ruble 73-74 rubles per dollar in about three or four of the ruble is weaker than the level that corresponds to the current price of oil.
this mismatch of the ruble and oil prices due to the weakness of the capital account, that is, the sentiment-driven return on the agenda of the risk of sanctions, stressed Orlov. Although the situation is far from the one observed in 2018, with the approach of presidential elections in the US, investors have to be very careful. In the end, market sentiment on the ruble now looks very mixed: some investors expect continued weakening of the ruble from the current levels, others are willing to play the script returns the rate to the levels of 2019, that is to 60-65 rubles per dollar, said the analyst.
Given the extremely high degree of volatility in the market in recent months, the analysis of fair value of ruble is now needed to determine the long-term exchange rate, indicates Orlov. The pandemic is costly for the Russian economy, and the fair value of the rouble shifted from the range of 63 to 70 rubles per dollar for this year to the range 68-78 rubles per dollar by 2021, says Orlova. In her opinion, the potential improvement of the capital account still can provide a short-term strengthening of the ruble to the dollar, but this movement should be used to increase foreign exchange position. So, at the end of 2021, according to the forecast Orlova, we can expect the rate of 75 rubles per dollar.
