the Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina at a Friday press conference said that since the beginning of the lifting of restrictions in Russia is recorded a sustained growth of the economy. This is manifested in the strengthening of the ruble, rising prices for Urals crude oil to $35 per barrel, and zero inflation for the past week, said the head of the Central Bank . At year-end Nabiullina expects inflation in the corridor of the 3.8-4.8%. Experts believe this forecast is too optimistic. Meanwhile, the Central Bank warned about the peak of prices in the summer.
In the past two weeks, inflation was slightly above 3%, said Chairman of the Central Bank. According to her, the price growth associated with the weakening of the ruble, exhausted. However, the regulator left unchanged its forecast of annual inflation in the range of 3.8% to 4.8%. The target remained at 4%. Local peak inflation may reach in the summer, said the head of the Central Bank.
Separately Elvira Nabiullina commented on the inflationary effect payment of 10 thousand rubles for children from 3 to 16 years.
“the Results of this money will support the livelihoods of families and support demand in the economy. In particular, will contribute to a more rapid achievement of the inflation target. Proinflationary effect we don’t see,” she said. We will remind, earlier the head of the regulator opposed to direct payments to the population and say that this distribution of money will lead to an explosion of inflation.
meanwhile, experts are questioning the inflation forecast of the Central Bank. “We expect year-end inflation will be around 5%. In favor of accelerating the growth of consumer prices will be factors such as the devaluation of the ruble this year and preinflation various processes in food inflation. For example, a weak harvest, including due to the action of viral factors, may lead to significant rise in prices of some food items in retail. Retailers themselves can in some segments of the food to raise prices against the background of increased quarantine period costs, e.g. transport costs,” – said the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.
note that the population traditionally perceives inflation significantly higher than official statistics show. The may poll “the Old,” made by order of the Central Bank, showed that the subjective perception of Russians of inflation averaged 10.4 per cent.
At the same time, as indicated by Pokatovich, the acceleration of inflation this year is unlikely to be large because of the substantial reduction in consumer demand. “According to our estimates, consumer spending this year may shrink by 10-15%, and the decline in real disposable income will amount to 5-8%. Such a substantial contraction in consumer demand will be a powerful factor of the deceleration of inflation: people simply do not have the means on purchases,” says the analyst. According to him, most likely, this year the inflation rate will go beyond the target of the Central Bank at 4%, but in 2021-m may again stay within these limits.
