Demographers can’t accurately determine how the pandemic coronavirus affect life expectancy in various countries of the world. At the level of individual regions, where was concentrated the largest number of cases and deaths, the loss of years of life may be comparable with what happened during the Second world war. However, at the country level, statistically, life expectancy may even increase if you find that died from the infection would have died soon from other causes. Not in the near future will not appear and the data on how the infection affects the years of life of those who suffered.Now, demographers and economists can offer a variety of different approaches to measuring human loss from pandemic coronavirus, and in the future their number will only grow. Such a conclusion can be drawn on the results of the online Symposium, International Institute for applied systems analysis (Vienna) and Ranepa “Demographic consequences COVID-19”. It presented the first scientific work, which aimed to analyze the loss from the infection this year on preliminary data on morbidity and mortality in different countries. Previously, “Kommersant” already wrote about the disadvantages of the now available data (see “Kommersant” on 28 may).As noted by Professor Bocconi University, Simon Gikandi, the epidemic is fundamentally important was the assessment of the demographic situation in the country and at the regional level, as in most countries, including in Italy, the number of infected and deaths differed according to the regions several times. To estimate the years of life lost in the course of the epidemic, it is suggested to compare the rates of daily deaths before and during the outbreak of coronavirus infection. Comparison of the data for the first quarter of 2019 and 2020 he found that the individual Italian regions most heavily affected by the epidemic, lost years of life of the population can be several years. Although the results of the year in these parts of the country the wastage rate is likely to decrease, even in this case they will show the largest decline in life expectancy since the Second world war.Another approach to measuring the losses from the pandemic suggested in his report the representative of Shanghai University Guillaume Marois, who built a model that maps of the probability of dying from any cause and become infected with coronavirus and die from it. On the one hand, the link between infection and loss of life to which it leads, turned out to be linear — thus, the increase of proliferation in the region by 1% leads to a reduction in life expectancy of 0.1 years and an increase of 10% reduces it by one year. However, for countries with different age structure of the population result��results will vary. If the same prevalence rate in countries with high life expectancy losses amount to 4-11, with an average — 3-9 years, with a low of 1-5 years.At the same time, according to the moderator, head of laboratory of demography and human capital Ranepa Sergey serbova, in the study of the effects of coronavirus on the demographic situation in a particular region must take into account that with some probability the disease may even lead to an increase in life expectancy at the regional level, if the infection died, those who in any case are unlikely to have lived more than a few months. However, he also reminded that while there is no data on how transferred coronavirus infection affects the life expectancy of those who recovered.Anastasia Manuylova
