In Rosstat data on deaths in April, there are inconsistencies.
According to the Ministry in April 2019 in Russia died 149 468 man — in operational government data their number was 147 167. As a result, although the number of deaths in April of this year were continue less than April 2019 (153 867 people), the difference between them was not 6700, and 4399 people. Accordingly, changed the difference between the indices of deaths for January—April 2019 and 2020 — instead Zaslavskaya 19 500 it dropped to 17 265 people.
in Other to Rosstat, was and the details about those who died in April, being infected with coronavirus infection.
In 1270 people about the virus and its decisive influence on the irrefutable death (previously there were 1,136 cases), and another 390 people, the presence of virus was confirmed not test, and the results of the autopsy. A separate group consisted of those who died, being infected with a coronavirus, from another disease. Previously, the government talked about the 1038 cases, according to Rosstat, their was 1052, of which 435 cases, the coronavirus has acted as a catalyst of already existing illness, and in 617 has not had any effect on it.
the Record for the number of deaths during the epidemic was expected in Moscow, where 805 people have died directly in connection with the coronavirus and 756 people, from other causes, but had tested positive for the virus. These data are similar to the healthcare Department at the end of may and for the same reason, exceed the data of the operational headquarters in Moscow by 20%.
Comparable difference, there are probably between operational and published by the Rosstat data in the regions. On the second place after Moscow according to number of deaths was the Moscow region — there directly from the coronavirus has died, 383 persons, in eight cases it acted as a catalyst for already existing disease. In third place — St. Petersburg, where, according to Rosstat, from the coronavirus has died, 166 and 34 — resulting from exacerbation of chronic diseases.
It probably may not so much reflect the real picture of mortality in some regions as the delay data in local registry offices.
the Conclusion that this can be done on the basis of the footnotes to the documents published by Rosstat, in which office, though without specifying the individual regions, refers to the provision of incomplete registration of births and deaths in the system of the unified state register of the registry office in connection with the quarantine. This factor likely explains the significant — over 5% — reduction of total mortality in 38 regions of the country.
In nine regions of mortality, on the contrary, increased by more than 5%, and in most of them the rate of growth is much PREvesham the number of deaths with positive analysis of the coronavirus. For example, in the Tomsk region, the excess of deaths this year compared to the same period of 2019 20.7% — in the region, according to Rosstat, there was not a single death directly or indirectly associated with the coronavirus.
Note that inaccuracies even in the monthly data on mortality (though much smaller volume than in the current document Rosstat), not to mention the operational indicators are the norm for statistical offices not only in Russia but also abroad. This, in particular in the treatment of a number of European experts in demographics in a letter to Eurostat. For this reason, both Russian and foreign statistics on mortality and fertility has a different periodicity — the most reliable data are for the year published in the first quarter of next year. Fundamentally improve this situation unless the total digital tracking of every citizen at every stage of his life — however, such a mechanism is beyond the material and political costs.
Anastasia Manuilova
