Former Australian general and military expert Mick Ryan believes the coming months will be used by Russia and Ukraine to gain an advantage before winter sets in. And winter could also be decisive for the West.
Mick Ryan is certain that the war in Ukraine will pick up speed again in the next few weeks. Because slowly but surely Ukraine and Russia will have to deal with the coming winter. “Both sides have a few months until winter arrives. This will severely impact ground and air operations,” Ryan said. However, the Australian believes that the West will also have to ask itself uncomfortable questions.
There are now three aspects to be considered in this war.
Firstly, the Russian side: Ukraine’s ongoing successes in Himar have consequences for the conduct of the war. Because Russian weapons depots and supply routes are hit, the armed forces are under pressure. “The Russians will have to conduct the next phase of their campaign with less artillery shells, even less morale and possibly increasing attacks from the Ukrainian air force,” Ryan believes.
They would have to buy the advances in the East even more expensively than the conquest of Luhansk. Defense in the south remains challenging and “they will have trouble restocking for the coming winter.”
On the other hand, Ukraine: You have been exposed to grueling artillery fire for a long time. Thanks to the Himars deliveries, this is no longer a problem. “Until the struggle for Donbass, Ukraine had focused on the strategy of ‘disintegration’. This allowed the Ukrainians to fight Russian military capabilities from within – culminating in Russia’s withdrawal from the north,” writes Ryan.
And that’s exactly what Ukraine needs to focus on again “for the phase between now and winter,” Ryan said. If it then succeeds in destroying the Russian depots with Himar rocket launchers at the same time, “that will have an impact on the orchestration of a large Russian offensive and at the same time provide a starting point for a Ukrainian offensive,” said the ex-general.
And third, the West: “We will have to see how the big countries in the West behave as winter approaches and energy prices continue to rise.” This will test the “determination of some nations in their support for Ukraine”, predicts Ryan.
The Australian writes: “While this war is perhaps the clearest example of good versus evil since World War II, it remains to be seen whether Europe’s leading nations will be able to persuade their populations to accept higher energy prices as a price for supporting Ukraine in the endure battle against Russia.”
Ryan ends his reflections with a gloomy prognosis: “The coming months could be the bloodiest and most brutal of the war so far.”