In the “MK” was a remote round-table discussion of the presidential elections in Belarus. Contacted the presidential candidate of the Republic Andrey Dmitriev, Deputy head of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharikhin, political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev, and Belarusian economist Leonid Zaika. The experts were unanimous in the opinion that Lukashenka is obsolete, to rule the Republic for the sixth consecutive term, and the economic gap from the neighbors, which becomes every year more evident to citizens puts the question squarely: to change the power or to emigrate.
According to the presidential candidate Andrei Dmitriev, Lukashenko may not offer voters anything new. In this population of impoverished and feels that he was left to fend for themselves (especially against the background of the neglect of the coronavirus). “Lukashenka’s promises are perceived as the program of the slow decay of the country. But the Belarusians want only peaceful change. At our events you can write a tutorial on how to protest peacefully. Only Lukashenka scares people the Maidan, and this is the first election when presidential candidates are arrested before the vote, not after…Lukashenko – is the main investor in the revolution,” – said Dmitriev.
Vladimir Zharikhin believes that Lukashenka himself has created a problem when he decided to quarrel with Russia because of oil prices. The Deputy head of the Institute of CIS countries believes that the current Belarusian opposition can be divided into two categories: one is counting on support from the West, while others hope for Russia. The last seriously got scared when Lukashenka did not agree with Moscow on energy prices, but rather questioned the existence of the Union state. “People are frightened by the campaign of petty blackmail against Moscow. Thanks to this were able to rise such candidates as the President Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo. Plus, in a society tired of Lukashenka’s rule. The Outlook of Belarusians is expanding, and the President of the Republic continues to exploit the image of the head of the farm, which is clearly out of date,”
an Expert on Belarus Andrei Suzdaltsev connects the protests in Belarus, the institutional crisis of Lukashenko’s regime: “According to recent reports, Lukashenko’s rating of about 3.8%, Babariko 59% of Dmitriev about 30%. Lukashenko believes that it can arrest the major competitors, and the voters will vote for him because there is no other choice. He can not understand that the Belarusians don’t care who becomes the next President, just not to Lukashenko on the one hand, Belarusians, including the most inveterate nationalists, feared that Belarus could lose subsidies from Russia, on the other, they hit the coronavirus. As a result, the feeling of a burning house. Lukashenko should understand that the old Belarus is already there, and whoever wins the next election, she will not rise again.”
Suzdaltsev emphasizes that today Pro-government experts of Belarus position sixth re-election of Lukashenko as the solution to all problems. However, they ignore the fact that in Moscow Lukashenko is perceived as the inability of a politician, any of its competitors will be for Moscow a more pleasant companion, the expert believes. However, Suzdaltsev emphasizes that the Lukashenko regime looks stable at first glance. “In Belarus there is no political elite, instead, there is a corrupt nomenklatura, which is fed by Lukashenko. As soon as he ceases to supply them, they run away. A real pillar of the regime are the security forces, but they are nervous, because they remember how we treated the “Berkut” in Ukraine”, – said during the round table “MK” Suzdaltsev said.
against this background, the participants remembered the experience of the “velvet revolution” in Armenia, but the Parallels are still carried out very carefully. They believe that Armenians and Belarusians different mentality. In addition, Armenia is incomparably milder acted repressive bodies. If in Yerevan no one was afraid to go outside, in Minsk, the fear of punishment by Lukashenko there. On the other hand, the current protests in Belarus still are unprecedented.
the Candidate in presidents of Belarus Andrey Dmitriev believes that this is due to the
the crashed hopes of the Belarusians during the last five years Lukashenko. In 2015, many hoped that Lukashenko would be something of an enlightened monarch, able to carry out reforms. In 2020, it became apparent that he was not able to conduct generally any reform.
His opinion was supported by Belarusian economist Leanid Zaika: “reform hoped the youth, who in 2015 only involved in Belarusian politics. Anyone who has been in this swamp for a long time, it was clear that nothing will happen. The system of Lukashenka’s power rests on oil and gas that Russia supplies. He sovhozny, it is naive to expect a breakthrough. As a result, the generation of 30-40-year-old realized that they have two options – to change the power or move to another country. In General, Lukashenka’s regime is doomed, just that he still does not understand. He needed a graceful exit, and do not want. Even if Lukashenko will win the presidential election, he is unlikely to sit before the end of the presidential term. He has a very fine spiritual nature. Familiar with it people are saying that in 1990-ies, even before the presidency, he could cry if the boss had refused him the grant money. Lukashenko is very important to feel that the people loved him, without it he will quickly fail. He can go by himself, or leave the item. After that, Belarus will start around!��turn into a parliamentary Republic”.