Alexander Lukashenko do not have good situation with imagination, but he’s really all right with clarity. To publicly predict the future course of political events in the Republic, father of all Belarus went not somewhere, and in the location of the airborne brigade. Speaking there before the hall filled with men in uniform, the future six-time President (while he was only five-fold) of their country in no uncertain terms laid out what will happen next. According to Alexander Lukashenko, after the announcement of the election results August 9, it has a large-scale mass protests, and not just waiting, and ready to crush them with an armoured fist.

However, do not think that the official Minsk is building its policy in relation to those children, who for some reason don’t like the man, solely on the principle of “Yes, we have them now on the wall smudge!”. Tactics Lukashenko is much thinner. If he Alyaksandr Lukashenka behaves like a “bad COP”, some of his senior subordinates act as “good cops”. For example, almost simultaneously with a formidable performance farther in front of the Marines in the official Belarusian media published an interview with Andrei Savinyh — the person who holds the position of Chairman of the Commission on international Affairs of either house of Parliament, but explicitly claims in this case on the laurels of a great authority in the field of psychoanalysis.

Sticking to the place or not to place a variety of buzzwords like “cognitive technologies to manipulate people”, Andrew Savinykh draws the following picture of the world: “PR (the opposition. the — MK) appeal to the inner child, while the official media and the chain of command appeal to logic, to reason, that is, “inner adult.” It is curious that Alexander Lukashenko considers it in other words says absolutely about the same. Telling the stunned paratroopers that after the promulgation of the 2010 presidential elections government house tried to storm the “gang” consisting of “400 aggressive fighters”, the old man after a few sentences suddenly “changed the record”. From the words of the President indicated that, despite its “aggressiveness”, the notorious “fighters” and were “jerks”, which then “gave a receipt to their mothers.”

Why I analyzed these intricate verbal eksersis farther and his team? Because they give a comprehensive picture about the nature of Lukashenka’s plan for winning elections. After a sudden “revolt on the ship” — the nomination of alternative candidates from among the Belarusian elite — many in Moscow had the impression: the Sphinx is cracked and began to collapse, Lukashenka has lost its former grip and can��play elections, only considerably stained its reputation “efficient dictator”. In opposition to this threat to the image of the father, the impression of the official Minsk promotes a completely different interpretation of what is happening: nothing is happening. What we believe to be new is actually well forgotten old.

Again give the floor to the parliamentarian (as well as the therapist-lover) Andrew Savinykh: “Engine of these protests is the urban intelligentsia, particularly the young part. Mostly these people are humanitarian, technology and services. They would like to see Belarus from the welfare state transformed into a libertarian. In reality this is a very small percentage of the population by 10-15%”. Just above I called Andrew Savinykh “psychologist-lover”. Perhaps I should take the word about the “lover” back. Issued by the MP analysis is, of course, pure propaganda. But it’s convincing propaganda — convincing in the first place, for the Russian political elite, which now also bother your own “customized libertarians urban intelligentsia”.

In Russia, however, it turned out that the problem is not only and not so much the libertarians. In Khabarovsk, where I can not calm down mass protests, libertarians might have. But they were definitely in the vast minority. It remains to understand how many libertarians in Belarus and is the main problem farther. If events go according to the predicted scenario (publication of the results of the election — riots — riot control — the restoration of calm), then we can talk about important political and propaganda victory of Lukashenko. But it does not appear Lukashenka hour “private” Khabarovsk, where his Fi six-time President will say “inner adult”?

to be Honest, after watching how a very confident-looking Lukashenko verbal breaks down his opponents over his knee, I don’t really believe in the possibility of “Belarusian Khabarovsk”. The old man looks no less menacing than twenty years ago. But this is a view from the outside. Wait weighty words of the Belarusian themselves “adults”.