The cunning of the Belarusian Father Alexander Lukashenko happened pre-election aggravation of relations with Moscow. His first presidential elections in 1994 he won, skillfully played the Russian card in every way pedaling topic of maximum rapprochement with Russia. The presidential election of 2020 Lukashenko, it seems, also intends to win by playing the Russian card — but only with the opposite sign.
In his new incarnation of a heroic fighter for the freedom and independence of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko breaks the insidious plan of the organization in the country coup, just in time exposing the 33 Kremlin saboteurs. All this is happening against the background of the imminent arrival in Minsk, the first in many years a full-fledged U.S. Ambassador.
Acting in such a deliberately provocative way, the leader of Belarus, apparently, plans to kill two birds with one stone: the most hassle-free to win elections and to push Russia to the wall, putting it in a losing situation, which forced to make excuses. But do not heal the political game Lukashenko his own life? Will it not become the start of a process of irreversible changes in the relations of Minsk and Moscow?
Walking around in Minsk three and a half years ago, I had the temerity to approach the building of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus. Me immediately jumped a man in uniform and asked who I was and what I was doing here. Hearing that I was a tourist from Russia and that one of my Hobbies is exploring in terms of architecture, government buildings, security guard precipitated and began to look at me like I was insane. How fortunate for me that this walk took place in July 2020, and in January of 2017!
of course, I don’t wear a “uniform clothes military style”, sometimes drink alcohol and do not try to “stay apart”. But if I could not restrain his curiosity now, then the case would not be limited to the verification of documents and fatherly suggestion. I should be sitting in a particularly secure Belarusian neighborhood along with 33 “Russian saboteurs”.
Jokes aside, but the official version of the Minsk authorities about the accidental discovery of a group of suspicious persons due to their “not typical for Russian tourists behavior” does not hold water.
Belarus is a country not frightened of the KGB, the state in which all that is necessary is bugged and x-rayed. If this kind of power comes a group of employees close to the Russian authorities private military company, it means that everything was agreed in advance with the local competent authorities. But if the official Minsk suddenly starts to pretend that no such agreement existed in sight, it can only mean one thing: for some reason, Lukashenka has “changed the concept” — and now to his advantage to pose as injured innocence.
what reason is it? The answer to this question is very simple, and very difficult. Tactically, all very obvious. Alexander G. in recent times especially strongly did not go well with Russia. This time. And yet Farther actively went wrong with the elections. That’s two.
experienced Lukashenko took two problems were compounded and molded them into one solution. That’s three. The permanent leader of Belarus used to click presidential elections as nuts. But in 2020, a familiar scenario — in the “boat” candidates Father, some obviously impassable and unranked opposition and a couple of extras — has failed. In air has begun to smell kerosene. And then Lukashenko, being in the sense of ability to put opponents a crushing retaliatory strike complete opposite of Viktor Yanukovych, began to act on the principle that the best defense is a good offense.
First the old Man refused to play the game, which he diligently impose his political opponents: the young and fresh faces of Belarusian politics against the old, tired, one might say, even moldy dictator. Instead, Lukashenko suggested his game: wise, experienced, battle-hardened leader courageously saves the Belarusian government from a terrible fate he has in store for insidious and evil foe.
For this Alexander Grigorievich first had to choose someone fresh in the role of adversary. Before this continuously in solo shows Lukashenko “the snake in the grass” was the West. But even the most successful story as its repetition gradually ceases to seem so turns into a worn stamp. This left the President of Belarus only one way forward — to go to the demonization of Russia and start to spin the topic of the Kremlin conspiracy. Thus, if after the announcement of election results August 9, the country will begin protests, they can be attributed to the “hand of Moscow” and hard to suppress “acts of national betrayal.”
I am Sure that Alexander Lukashenko in any case does not aspire to a complete and final break with Russia. It’s the very opposite: to humiliate Moscow and elevate himself, to present the Russian leadership is a bunch of small and not very successful schemers, and the President of Belarus is a large, successful and generous statesman of international scale. And Alexander G. probably going to knock out of the Kremlin is the impressive “compensation” for having to pull the scandal over the brakes. The game is intuitive and even somewhat logical. But it’s still the game on the line, and perhaps even for his gr��new.
to Quarrel and brawl with Moscow over economic issues is one thing. Accuse Russia of trying to organize in Belarus, if not a coup, mass unrest is quite another. This will not be forgotten, it will leave a scar and a notch — even if a specific current conflict will be resolved to mutual satisfaction.
scares Me and one more thing: for all its logic, political maneuvers Lukashenko becoming more extragavant and risky. Even before the latest scandal, keeping its foreign “allied” shell, relations between Russia and Belarus started to change their inner content. Now this process is even more accelerated. Isn’t that too high a price for what Lukashenko can once again win the presidential election?
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