Short and unsecured loans were the most vulnerable credit products in a pandemic and self-restraint. Retail portfolios of banks that specialized in them, declined the most. In this large state-owned banks showed a growth of the loan portfolio, including largely owing to the steady growth in the beginning of the year and the issuance of preferential mortgage. The reduction of portfolios is another negative factor affecting the profitability of banks, experts say.“Kommersant” has analyzed the dynamics of the retail loan portfolios of the 50 largest Russian banks. In the calculations we used data of 101 reporting form for January—may 2020. The largest decline was demonstrated by the portfolios of banks specializing in unsecured lending (see “Kommersant” on 18 may and 10 June). The reduction in their portfolios was from the beginning, but after the introduction of the regime of confinement has significantly improved. The largest banks in this segment have reduced the retail portfolio by 2-11%, and turned out to be outsiders HCF-Bank and Credit Europe Bank. In HKF Bank, among the negative factors indicated “falling wages and shrinking effective demand”. In “the Russian standard” have noted a significant decline in consumer demand for loans amid quarantine and isolation. Bank “Renaissance Credit” indicated that the greatest reduction demonstrated in cash loans because of reduction of volumes of newly issued loans. On the one hand, the issue was affected by the restrictive measures of the authorities, on the other — “in the face of uncertainty the people themselves were not ready to take on new debt,” said the Bank.Another group affected by the reduction of portfolios— banks with focus on car loans (see “Kommersant” on 29 April and 18 June). Unlike the previous group at the beginning of the year they have the dynamics of the portfolio was positive, especially in March, before the introduction of the quarantine. This is largely determined by their performance at the end of five months. The total portfolio decreased by 22.3 billion rubles (4.5 percent), while private banks decline to 8.6%. Almost half of the reduction in the portfolio occurred in Rusfinans-Bank. In addition to the reduction of the loans in the dealerships, which in most regions were closed in a pandemic, the Bank pointed to the group’s decision ROSBANK to get out of the POS business (“Rusfinance” within the group specialized in such lending).In these circumstances, the best feel major state-owned banks, notably developing the retail portfolio (1.3 16.9 per cent). Some of them showed an increase due to positive dynamics in the beginning of the year (Sberbank, “FC Opening”, the postal Bank), while others steadily built up a portfolio over the entire period (VTB, Gazprombank, Bank “Building.Of the Russian Federation”). Sberbank declined to comment. Other banks positive result largely associated with mortgage lending. VTB has indicated that the dynamics generated at the expense of the mortgage portfolio, which since the beginning of the year increased by 12%. The Bank noted that 101-I form does not include the “assign factory mortgage-backed securities”, which would increase this result.In times of crisis, banks prefer is not the maximization of income and minimizing risk, says the Director for Bank ratings “Expert RA” Ivan Uklein. In the economic downturn, banks have tightened credit policy that has an impact on portfolios. “To increase the volume of consumer loans without collateral the banks were ready only the most creditworthy clients, and therefore these portfolios showed a serious decline in April and may,” says Mr. Klein. The continued granting of loans does not offset the repayment of earlier loans. “In unsecured lending, this effect is manifested to the greatest extent, as these loans are usually quite short,” explains managing Director of the rating Agency NKR Stanislav Volkov. Exception have become universal banks, which constitute a large proportion of mortgages. “The General decline in interest rates, marketing promotions and benefit programs, supported the demand, and the banks, given the experience of previous crises did not reduce the offer and continue to view this segment as having a low risk,” he said.The decrease in the loan portfolio provides an additional negative effect on profitability, the second factor is potentially higher reserves, Fitch analyst Anton Lopatin. However, the amount of reducing portfolios is not yet critical. Can the loan portfolios to fall even more, to predict while difficult, he says, because it’s not clear whether it passed the peak of the crisis and whether a second wave COVID-19.Olga Cherenkova
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