the Global economy is firmly on the threshold of a new crisis, said the head of the accounts chamber of Russia Alexei Kudrin. The prospects for the Russian economy is not very good: GDP growth should not be expected today.
“I want to say fully, rather, we stand on the threshold of crisis,” — said the former Minister of Finance of Russia. According to him, this crisis of all may be “sensitive enough”.
Kudrin said, “the next two months” will be decisive for all and show you “what scenario will go the whole world economy, will we be able to stop the risks associated with coronavirus that affects the oil market” (quoted by “Interfax”).
Kudrin said today the Federation Council has submitted to the senators assess the strength of the Russian budget – the pessimistic variant and baseline-optimistic.
Today, 17:00 Moscow time the price of European benchmark Brent on the stock exchange in London decreased by 8.7% to us $33 per barrel and the dollar exchange rate in Russia exceeded 75 rubles. according to trading.
While maintaining oil prices $35 per barrel before the end of the year and the dollar exchange rate of RUB 72 Russia’s budget will be in deficit and will lose about 3 trillion rubles Kudrin has estimated the budget deficit in Russia in such circumstances, in the amount of 2% of GDP, and the growth of the economy will be almost zero or even negative. This is a pessimistic scenario.
Much more likely is another scenario – the price of oil will recover to $40 per barrel or higher. But in this case, GDP growth will be around zero, and the budget will still be scarce, said Kudrin.
At a price of $35 per barrel in the country will accelerate inflation because of the weak ruble. “It will affect inflation. Inflation could rise to 6% or even more,” — said Kudrin (quoted by TASS). He called hopelessly outdated, all the macroeconomic forecasts of the government made the Ministry of economic development.
According to economists, “Alfa-Bank" which read “Вести.RU” the declining oil prices, for every $10 per barrel reduces the rate of the ruble, 5 rubles/$. If the price of oil will remain at about $35 per barrel in the near future, the dollar will be fixed at the level of 75 rubles, economists predict “Alfa-Bank”.
the Russian economy is stable and many years can maintain stability even in unfavorable external conditions, said Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.