Scientists from the UK estimated the number of lives saved and predicted the future.
Scientists at the Center for global analysis of infectious diseases MRC at Imperial College London and the Institute for intelligence diseases and emergency aid named James appreciated how many lives were saved through quarantine measures introduced in 11 European countries — Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and even Sweden (considered soft constraints in the country, with meetings numbering no more than 50 people, distance learning in universities and high school , etc.).
All calculations were performed retrospectively. The results have been submitted to the journal Nature, where an article is accepted for publication, but so far contains only a draft of the text.
it says that until the beginning of may in 11 of the countries examined from COVID-19 killed 130 thousand people.
Russian experts ambiguously reacted to these calculations, but in General about the effectiveness of quarantine measures and the number of lives saved they agree with British scientists.
— the Attitude to this school of thought in the scientific community is ambiguous, but I personally believe that scientists from the UK pretty close to the truth, — have informed “news” the Professor of physical faculty of Moscow state University. M. V. Lomonosov Mikhail Tamm. — Perhaps their method somewhat overestimates potential risks, as it ignores the heterogeneity of the population. But overall I think they’re probably right. In other words, I think that maybe the death rate would be two times lower than they predict (e.g., due to the fact that even in the absence of centralized measures, many people would voluntarily comply with quarantine), but the order of magnitude, I think, correct.
scientists from the UK based on a very conventional model that does not takes into account voluntary self-restraint of the people and which suggests that the spread of infection drops sharply right after the announcement of the lockdown that has not been proven, according to the Director of research Agency Data Insight Boris Ovchinnikov. However, the expert does not dispute the very necessity of quarantine measures that saved if not millions, then hundreds of thousands of lives.
to Prove this fact, according to experts, it is possible, and analyzing the Italian statistics. There is an important difference in mortality between the regions. For example, Lombardy was affected by the virus first — and, accordingly, quarantine measures there have been introduced at a later stage of the epidemic than in the rest of the country. The result — the region in which he lives 17% of the population of the state, gave nearly half (48%) deaths. The death rate per capita from the coronavirus in Lombardy almost five times higher than in other Rthe regions of the country.
Commenting on the study in an interview with the BBC, the authors of the scientific article in Nature made a very important statement. Its essence is that the world is currently only at the beginning of the pandemic COVID-19, which is confirmed by the who statement, which experts believe overall the situation is deteriorating.
He was echoed by co-author Dr. Samir Bhatt.
— There is a very real risk if mobility will return to normal that the second wave COVID-19 will come fairly soon, within the next month or two, he said.
With the assessment of the arrival of a new wave of illness I agree and Michael Tamm.
— the Risk of the second wave is very large. But in our conditions, when the quarantine is removed the background is not defeated until the end of the epidemic in Moscow and morbidity in the regions, the second wave seems almost inevitable, he says.
But with the assertion that the pandemic is now only at the initial stage, Russian experts are likely to disagree.
According to Pavel Volchkov, if we consider that in Moscow antibodies are found in approximately 15% of people, the total number of survivors in the city, probably close to 30%. He expects this figure, since in the population there are people, the level of antibodies produced in organisms which are too small for the ELISA test them caught.
— 15% — those in which the level of immunoglobulin was high enough that the test is working, but there are still people with a small number of antibodies. I think that in Moscow, about 25-30% have actually had COVID-19. The situation in the world, I think, is close to ours. That is really had already not 7 million So this stage of a pandemic cannot be considered primary, — said Pavel Volchkov.
However, peculiarities of the course of the pandemic in different countries, the specifics of quarantine measures and how they are observed, the difference in strains of coronavirus, an indefinite amount of antibodies that are not detectable by the tests, as well as other parameters make the calculations too complex for an accurate forecast.
