The fall of the Russian IT-market up to 2020 may exceed 30% in dollar terms, then it is waiting for a restoration of the entire 2021, predicts IDC. The situation may be worse than the crisis of 2015, fall has affected the segment of mobile phones, computers, and servers. IT market depends on other sectors of the economy, say the participants, hoping for a quick recovery.By the end of 2020 the volume of Russian IT-market may fall by more than 30%, told “Kommersant” Vice President of the research company IDC in Russia and the CIS countries Robert Farish. In the assessment of the market it include delivery of IT and telecommunications hardware, software and IT services. The forecast is based on the perspective of lowering GDP by 3-6% assuming a stable exchange rate. “If in the middle of April it was still possible to compare the current decline of the IT market with a decline of 37.3% in 2015, the latest Rosstat data on the reduction of the volume of cargo at 7% suggests that the situation is even more serious,” said Mr. Farish. According to preliminary data from IDC, in the first quarter of 2020, supply of mobile phones in Russia fell 28% in dollar terms, personal computers and tablets — 10% servers 12%, and only increased printing equipment — 3.5%.IT market in 2021 expect a “sophisticated and targeted restoration”, the result of which would benefit such industries as medicine, education, media, telecommunications, utilities and regional management, believes Mr Farish, however, many companies will continue to work remotely as the prices for mobile Internet will increase. In addition, in the next six months will be differently prioritized in the budgets of the projects — they will be sent to the task of rebuilding the business, experts predict.Most market participants agree with the IDC. Most likely, the IT market will decrease by 15-40% in dollar terms, said the Deputy Director General of group of companies Dmitry Angara Pounds. After the crisis of 2015, the market is practically maintained the amount in rubles, although halved in dollars, rebuilt and returned to growth, but now the situation is radically different, he says, “the market does not just have to take a new coordinate system, he has yet to find out what conditions have to work in the future.” This means that one should not expect a rapid return to growth trajectory, concludes Mr. Pounds.Thus, according to him, for the segment of information security in General, the situation may not be as dramatic as it forced organizations to pay attention to the gaps.The economic situation is reminiscent of the Domino: suffer some of the industry and are pulling for the other, says the head of the Directorate of computer systems, services and outsourcing of the company “infosistemy Dzhet” Anthe Pavlenko. This is especially true in the IT-market, which operates on a service model, providing services for companies in different sectors, he explains. The difference of the current situation of crisis of 2015 — a high degree of digitalization in all sectors of economy, the Director of the Department of information technology IT-CROC Maria Ukolova. In her opinion, now it market “is not so much falling, how many changes”, as, unlike other industries, it can react and adjust quickly enough.The limiting factors for the market became the temporary suspension of plants in Southeast Asia, as well as failures in logistics because of restrictions in the sphere of international transportation, says global CEO of Softline Sergey Chernovolenko, but now the situation gradually stabiliziruemost. At the same time, because of the imposition of the crisis in the oil and currency markets and entry modes of self-isolation IT-the market has faced an “unprecedented” drop in demand, he admits, hoping that this situation will not be prolonged. There is a feeling of slowing down business processes, especially when dealing with smaller companies, confirms chief representative in NetApp Russia and CIS Tatiana Bocharnikova. According to her, a year by April 2020, revenue increased in Russia by more than 25%, although in the following fiscal year to make predictions now difficult.Yulia Stepanova
