“Our Actions today will decide the extent to which we manage to minimize the impact of this disaster,” said India’s Prime Minister Narendra modi, in a television speech in which he explained the reasons for the imposed a nationwide curfew. For 21 days, until mid-may, is available to arrest the population is practically under the house. In this way, the government hopes to further spread of the novel Coronavirus to stop. The fear is that the country with its 1.3 billion people, a massive wave of Infection.

guesswork to the extent of the spread

Since the beginning of the week, has doubled the number of registered Corona infections almost. On Thursday, the Johns Hopkins University, documented the Corona number of cases worldwide reported that almost 800 Infected and 20 deaths. Connoisseurs of the public health fear is that the Ministry of health reported Figures are not the actual extent of the infection reflect. “The infection is short before the Explosion. The official Figures that are announced are just the tip of the iceberg,” says Arvind Kumar, a lung surgeon at the Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in New Delhi, the DW.

there are already cases in which the Infected were not even abroad, still in touch with from abroad, had returned Back, it is suspected that the Virus is circulating already in the population. In order to get a picture of the actual spread of the Coronavirus, would have to be a lot more people with flu symptoms tested, advises T. sundara Raman, former Director of India’s National Health system Resource Center, an Advisory body of the Indian Ministry of health. “Even if it turns out that you have a seasonal flu and not with the Coronavirus infected.”

Gloomy predictions of epidemiologists

approved by The Ministry of health has twelve private COVID-19-test laboratories. According to a press release from the government, there are also 15,000 of the collection. And in Germany, a Million Test had been ordered Sets, reports, officials of the Indian Council of Medical Research of the DW. How efficient is the Indian testing system is, in practice, know no one. In addition, the test rate is so far low. It is expected that the number of confirmed cases of infection is increasing rapidly, as health authorities begin to test more people in more cities.

A dramatic warning comes from the Indian epidemiologists Jayaprakash Muliyil: According to his estimates, up to 55 percent, could fall ill of the Indian population COVID-19. Other calculations, which rely on models from the USA and the UK, suggest that there could be up to July, 300 million of Corona cases in India. This gloomy should predictions come true, they would overwhelm the epidemic, the already under-funded Indian health system.

“The biggest Problem is can be treated in wide the mentality of the people”

By the country of exit restrictions and quarantine measures should be slower, therefore, the transmission speed, in order to gain time in the hospitals as many of the COVID-19-Ill. At the Moment, India needs time to obtain more Testskits and ventilation equipment. “Indian hospitals are not equipped with these devices,” says Mukesh Muki. He is a hospital doctor in the South Indian metropolis of Bangalore. According to government data, around 30,000 respiration devices in India are currently available. To procure additional devices is difficult, because had travel restrictions also apply to delivery routes.

in addition to the supply difficulties, it remains a challenge to bring people to the quarantine requirements and output to comply with the lock. “The biggest Problem in the fight against the Coronavirus, the mentality of the people. Many do not take the precautions, and this pandemic seriously,” complains the hospital doctor Mukesh Muki.

after the entry into force of the output you see in the whole of India, people in markets, in grocery stores, pharmacies, and banks lock on Wednesday. You remain open to the basic supply – but stopped home delivery offers expand. Especially since the public transport – with the exception of a few less buses on selected routes – complete is set.

long Days Waiting for the money

Particularly of the curfew, the day laborers are affected. Many will lose their jobs. The government has called for “proactive measures” to protect the workers and also the government assistance promised. However, many workers do not know at the moment when money get. “I don’t know what I should do. My family has been waiting for three days that I come home. But I have no choice, no money, I have to stay here,” says Rajeev Paswan, a construction worker in Lucknow, a city about 500 kilometers East of New Delhi. The mass return of the hired servants from the cities back to the country also carries a great risk, because many of the returnees may be unknowingly infected with the Coronavirus.

“The awareness for the Corona pandemic is pronounced in the population to different degrees,” says Prashant Kashyap, editor-in-chief of high-circulation newspaper “Dainik Jagran”. “While a part is aware of the risks and precautions, the majority of the people of the danger still not aware of it.” In the villages it is also difficult to forbid the population to leave their homes. “It is harvest time. A farmer works differently than a senior employee. He can’t do his work in enclosed spaces,” says Kashyap significantly. The Transmission of the Virus within the population is inevitable. “And the medical infrastructure in the country is not prepared absolutely not.”

He knew nothing about the symptoms of Corona-Virus, and nothing about how it will transfer, says Baldev Rai, shopkeepers and tea-seller in Gurugram, a suburb of New Delhi, the DW: “I just want back to the countryside in my home town.”

author: Murali Krishnan, Ankita Mukhopadhyay

*The post “India’s battle against Corona: With curfews contrary to gloomy forecasts” is published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.

Deutsche Welle