the Ministry of Finance is going to dramatically increase the national debt over the next five years, but does not intend to raise it above 20 percent of GDP. This is stated in the draft plan of activities of departments in the years 2020-2025, the referenced “Izvestia”.
as of July 1, this parameter reached 14.8 trillion rubles, or 13 percent, given the recent, adopted before the outbreak of the coronavirus in the Russian version of the budget. Relative to the last forecast of Ministry of economic development national debt reaches 14 percent.
If the Finance Ministry will carry out announced for this year development program, which includes the net four trillion rubles of debt, the debt will rise to 17 percent. Earlier, the Deputy head of Department Vladimir Kolychev assumed that in 2021-m borrowing will be significantly higher than planned 1.6 trillion rubles.
the press service of the Ministry refused to answer on the merits, that is, if the amount of debt you’re nearing exhibited indicators of 20 percent of GDP.
meanwhile, the experts expect that if the stimulus continues in the current regime, the national debt will soar above 20 percent by the end of next year. As pointed out by the economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich, oil revenues in the best case will return to pre-crisis levels by 2023, so that the budget deficit will have to be met from borrowings.
In turn, the Deputy Director of sovereign ratings and macroeconomic analysis of AKR Dmitry Kulikov indicates that help to keep the national debt at 20 percent of GDP could increase the budget deficit and the crisis will end in 2022.
Earlier Kolychev pointed out that the loss of the Federal budget for pandemic coronavirus exceeded one trillion rubles, and this non-oil revenues.